The nation’s politicians are consumed by the referendum debate. 23 June is seen as a momentous day. But politics will not stop on 24 June. Who has the campaign benefited so far? And, just as interestingly, who is on the wane? A Good Campaign Jeremy Corbyn. Simply by doing not very much, he has found that the heat has come off him to a large extent. The public is being reminded that Labour is not the only divided party and…
Donald Brind on the Ed Sec’s big gamble Nicky Morgan reckons she has what it takes to be Tory leader. She put her name on the board last October and followed it up with a declaration in February that it would be “a big mistake if Tory members were offered a choice between “two white menâ€, when David Cameron steps down. Her dream is in desperate need of a boost. In last month’s Conservative Home survey of leadership contenders she…
In 2010, Britain was being wrestled over by two parties competing to portray themselves to the public as the natural party of government. Â In his first conference speech, David Cameron returned repeatedly to the theme of “substance”. Â He told his party: “Real substance is about taking time to think things through, not trotting out easy answers that people might want to hear. Â It’s about sticking to your guns. Â It’s about character, judgement, and consistency. Â It’s about policy, yes. Â But it’s…
Will Trump rise to the occasion? Betting on the Republican nominee and related markets has been a mix of the interesting, surreal and downright bizarre. The betting overreaction to Marco Rubio finishing third in Iowa and becoming the favourite for the nomination was a particular highlight and profitable for many. But the GOP nomination contest has been marked by a certain viciousness between the candidates, with Donald Trump giving Ted Cruz the epithet Lyin’ Ted Cruz, whilst the cherry on…
Looking at the detail by local authority area Yougov have produced a very useful map that ranks local authority areas across Great Britain by levels of Euroscepticism. . Euroscepticism is not necessarily identical to supporting Brexit, but one can assume that there is a close correlation between the two. What does the map show us, and how does it compare to polling data? 1. There is a clear correlation between voting for right wing parties (Conservatives and UKIP) and support…
Will UKIP fare well in Wales? In the hot-house of political reporting and comment, individual stories invariably seem more important at the time than they subsequently turn out to be. The future of the Port Talbot steel works is likely to be one such case. Although the closure or even mothballing of the plant would be disastrous for the town and the people who live and work there, for most of Wales – never mind the country beyond – the…
Gaullup polling highlighting Trump's problem with the female half of the electorate. This trend is bad pic.twitter.com/dA5wXJdtQW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2016 These Ipsos Reuters favourability numbers don't look good for Donald Trump pic.twitter.com/1xKd33iVaR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2016 There’s an interesting article by John Fund just out in National Review speculating that really Mr. Trump doesn’t want the nomination and what we are seeing at the moment is what it describes as “self-sabotage”. Fund observes:…
PB’s Roger on the messages with the most potency The multinational Procter and Gamble has long been considered the most effective advertiser in the world. They had one simple formula which they used throughout their product range. They began their ads by showing a problem which was followed by a demonstration of how and why their product was the most effective way of dealing with it. ‘Bad breath…….so no one wants to talk to you?’ ‘Don’t worry help is on it’s…