The doubts over Cruz’s eligibility will hurt him in the eyes of primary voters irrespective of their validity

The doubts over Cruz’s eligibility will hurt him in the eyes of primary voters irrespective of their validity

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Salon Trump now Betfair favourite to win Iowa An ongoing issue for Cruz has been whether the fact that he was Canadian born makes him ineligible to serve as President. The constitution lays down that the office holder has to be a “natural born” American. There are many legal views on this, read the article linked to above, and it would probably end up in the Supreme Court. The question at this stage just before the primaries start is not…

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New Pew Research finds that none of the WH2016 contenders are inspiring voters and negative reactions are high

New Pew Research finds that none of the WH2016 contenders are inspiring voters and negative reactions are high

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Pew Research How the race has become totally polarised The above chart has just been published by the excellent Pew Research and is in many ways a US equivalent to the “good PM” ratings that we see in the UK. I think these numbers are worrying for both front runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Hillary doesn’t have the positive levels that her team would be hoping for while for Trump it us the negative findings that are the most…

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Online v Phone at GE2015: Looking at all the polls it’s hard to conclude anything other that the phone ones “won”

Online v Phone at GE2015: Looking at all the polls it’s hard to conclude anything other that the phone ones “won”

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A possible guide to EU referendum polling? As we all know with the final polls there was very little difference between those that carried out their fieldwork by phone and those that did it online. But this was very much out of keeping with what had happened throughout the formal campaign. The chart above illustrates this graphically. 70% of the phone polls had CON leads against just 26% of the online ones. At the same time 56% of the online…

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If indeed it was “herding” who can blame the pollsters?

If indeed it was “herding” who can blame the pollsters?

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So much rests on the final General Election poll I like the above chart from yesterday’s polling investigation presentation which does suggest that deliberately or not the overall affect was that a pattern that appeared like herding happened. I don’t blame the pollsters. So much is stake with their final election polls. It is something they can be judged on for the years that follow. Perhaps we need a more sensible approach to polling generally. As I’ve stated GE2015 has…

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Now the talk is of a Donald Trump Sarah Palin ticket

Now the talk is of a Donald Trump Sarah Palin ticket

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You can get her at 5/1 as GOP V-P nominee With only 11 days to go before the Iowa caucuses the former Governor of Alaska and 2008 VP candidate, Sarah Palin, flew into the state last night and endorsed Donald Trump for the Presidency. This is the first state to decide and where the property billionaire turned TV star, Donald Trump, is competing now in second place in most polls. In the betting Ted Cruz remains the favourite to win…

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More poor leader ratings for Mr Corbyn

More poor leader ratings for Mr Corbyn

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YouGov chart on Cameron & Corbyn's net well/badly ratings since September. pic.twitter.com/va1vqDGnOG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2016 Corbyn's ratings continues to decline continues with YouGov. Real worry is lack of support from GE LAB voters pic.twitter.com/QKlploodZB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2016 55% of LAB GE2015 voters tell YouGov that's it's unlikely that party will win next election if Corbyn remains. pic.twitter.com/GBIZJVVT1u — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2016

UK pollsters should follow the firm that created the industry and move on from party vote shares

UK pollsters should follow the firm that created the industry and move on from party vote shares

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Gallup Arguably Gallup has the right approach for the future The screen grab above is from the Election 2016 page of Gallup – the firm that created modern political polling in the 1930s. Its busy with lots of data, analysis and often excellent insights but one thing that you won’t find are voting intention polls. After a lacklustre performance with its voting numbers at WH2012 the firm took the strategic decision to drop that aspect for WH2016 and focus on…

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