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Those who actually vote are getting older and this has big political implications
New report warns that policies will be even more geared to the oldies The chart above is from the Intergenerational Fairness Foundation (IF) a think tank researches fairness between generations. It believes “that, while increasing longevity is welcome, government policy must be fair to all generations – old, young or those to come.” As a result of medical advances and having healthier lifestyles we are living longer. This combined with a far lower participation level in the political process amongst…
What’ll be critical in the next week or so is whether this week’s EURef developments will be reflected in the polling
UPDATED table of published #EURef poll where actual question was put pic.twitter.com/ReoZqCRkOD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2016
We can’t assume that the Donald is out of it yet
. @ppppolls reporting that 1st day of fieldwork for their next GOP national nomination poll finds support for Trump slipping sharply — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2016 On Monday Trump was a 50% shot on Betfair to be Republican nominee. That's now 23.5% pic.twitter.com/4wKemLtmsS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2016 The US pollster Public Policy Polling has a welcome practice of sending out Tweets like the one above to indicate significant trends in surveys some time before the…
The EURef campaign looks set to come down to Cameron versus the Tory press
Can Dave really win the argument in the face of this? Thanks to Guido for his collage of today’s front pages of the Tory papers following the negotiations on Britain’s future relationship with the EU. This must be the worst set of front pages for Cameron since the media turned on him in July 2007 at the start of Gordon Brown’s honeymoon as Prime Minister. Then the following two months became a nightmare and in September his Ipsos-MORI ratings dropped…
As well as a unique hair-style Trump has another thing in common with Boris – being overstated in the polls
Real Clear Politics All but one of the Iowa pollsters had inflated Trump numbers: All had deflated ones for Cruz and Rubio One of the things that I’ve written about before here is that Boris gets over-stated by the polls when tested against real election results. It happened to quite a degree at the last London mayoral election and we saw a similar pattern overnight in the results from Iowa. The table above from Real Clear Politics sets the data…
The EURef betting moves a notch to REMAIN following the latest from Tusk
We knew the renegotiation was a fudge, but even we are surprised by this… #LeaveEU pic.twitter.com/zHttpPoswx — Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) February 2, 2016 https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/694491947424153601 The EU Negotiations: Will what Cameron says is “substantial change” be enough? What a 24 hours. With all eyes and a lot of money at stake in Iowa we can now turn to the latest in Cameron’s EU negotiations and the publication of draft proposals from Mr. Tusk. It looks as though Cameron has made some progress…
Rubio moves to odds-on overall favourite after strong performance in Iowa
Marco Rubio – the real winner in Iowa beating all expectations & running Trump close for 2nd place pic.twitter.com/nUnG7enalh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2016 Trump making his post Iowa speech pic.twitter.com/BUd2uBVCk7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2016 The Democratic race is a virtual tie pic.twitter.com/3NygNKruJv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2016