And the winner the the PB Prize Mayoral Competition is……

And the winner the the PB Prize Mayoral Competition is……

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The prize goes to foxinsoxuk Just looking through the entries the prediction of foxinsoxuk was impressive. Very well done. I will be contacting you about the prize which is one of the nicest, if expensive, political books that I’ve ever seen. It is totally comprehensive and beautifully presented. It contains a mine of information and really is a prize worth winning. Thanks for Nojam once again for all their help Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

A BREXIT indicator? UKIP’s National Equivalent Vote share down by nearly half in 3 years

A BREXIT indicator? UKIP’s National Equivalent Vote share down by nearly half in 3 years

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Thursday saw UKIP winning just 2% of the first past the post seats Given that the dominant political story at the moment is the EU referendum it has been rather surprising that so little attention has been paid to UKIP – the party which very wisely concentrated its resources on the PR-based list seats in Wales rather than first past the post elections in the English locals. They certainly had success in Wales and also picked up two PR based…

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Freedom for Tooting – the by-election to fill Sadiq’s seat could be tight

Freedom for Tooting – the by-election to fill Sadiq’s seat could be tight

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Picture credit: Wikimedia Commons Alastair Meeks assesses the chances Zac Goldsmith’s father once said that when a man married his mistress, that created a vacancy.  In the same way, his successful opponent for the Mayor of London contest can be expected shortly to be standing down as MP for Tooting, giving rise to a fascinating by-election. Tooting has long been a Labour stronghold.  It has been held by the party ever since its creation in 1974.  The closest that the…

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Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and still lost

Zac Goldsmith led between 22% to 30% with the over 65s and still lost

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A pointer to the EU Referendum? One of the patterns that have emerged with a lot of the EU referendum polling is that the over 65s favour Brexit by a substantial margin, which gives the Leaver side a lot of hope that they may win the referendum on June 23rd, because older voters have had a higher turnout than younger voters in past elections. But look at the charts above from the final London Mayoral polling by YouGov and Opinium,…

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We mustn’t let the focus on Scotland and London over-shadow the poor CON performance in the English locals

We mustn’t let the focus on Scotland and London over-shadow the poor CON performance in the English locals

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Prof Rallings last month with the local elections projections. CON & UKIP underperformed LAB & LDs did bettet pic.twitter.com/PbNlCDxanc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2016 This is more up date. Latest local elections tally from BBC News. The Tories had been predicted to win 150 pic.twitter.com/PIkjUiYHf5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2016 And the LDs are making progrsss The narrative on election night tends to be set by what happens overnight Thurs/Fri and little attention has been paid…

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If Corbyn does becomes Prime Minister he should thank those behind the Zac campaign

If Corbyn does becomes Prime Minister he should thank those behind the Zac campaign

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The Wrath of Khan, Sadiq Khan accuses David Cameron of Trump-like anti Muslim tactics https://t.co/d4xYcljodG pic.twitter.com/kW3l90MlbN — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 7, 2016 As a Muslim I was appalled at Goldsmith’s campaign, as a Tory I’m appalled that Goldsmith’s campaign makes Corbyn as PM more likely. When your own sister criticises your campaign and praises your opponent as a good role model, when the media runs a quiz asking Who said it: Britain First or Zac Goldsmith? deep down you must know you’ve run…

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This weeks PB/Polling Matters podcast with Tory psephologist Lord (Robert) Hayward

This weeks PB/Polling Matters podcast with Tory psephologist Lord (Robert) Hayward

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Lord Hayward is well known and respected in Westminster for his expertise on psephology and regularly briefs the media on issues around elections and polling. Keiran and Robert sat down on the weekend after the elections to discuss what happened. Topics covered include the importance of national projected vote share, UKIP’s rise in Wales, the SNP’s failure to win a majority in Scotland and Ruth Davidson’s success in becoming Leader of the Opposition and the London Mayoral race. We even…

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Are we witnessing the death of Scottish Labour?

Are we witnessing the death of Scottish Labour?

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It’s not the falling that kills you; it’s the landing Bafflement and incomprehension are unlikely to be in short supply for Scottish Labour. Each time they hit a new low, the belief is that things can now only get better. With rare exceptions, the belief has continually been wrong. So again this week. For the fourth election in a row, Scottish Labour lost seats. The progression of their seat totals since the first election to Holyrood, in 1999, now reads:…

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