For millions the referendum will be over next weekend. Postal voting starts next Saturday

For millions the referendum will be over next weekend. Postal voting starts next Saturday

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The postal ballots go out next week Anything upto a quarter of the votes cast in the referendum will be by post and the time-table stipulated by the Electoral Commission states that ballot packs to postal voters should start to go out on Monday. Initially those who currently live overseas will be mailed but the plan is that UK-based postal voters will start getting their ballots by the weekend. Given that we know from past elections that most postal voters…

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Trump remains the value bet for the Presidency

Trump remains the value bet for the Presidency

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It’s time to take the prospect of him winning outright seriously No-one has got rich betting against Donald Trump this election campaign and now is unlikely to be the time to start. He’s currently best-priced at 5/2 with Ladbrokes, which in a two-horse race implies a serious weakness on his part. In many ways, he is a seriously weak candidate. He’s never held any public office before, never mind elected public office. He has very little active support from within…

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The extraordinary public battle between two of the men behind the creation and success of YouGov

The extraordinary public battle between two of the men behind the creation and success of YouGov

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Once upon a time @PeterKellner1 & @StephanShaxper were the leading lights in YouGov. This morning a Twitter scrap… pic.twitter.com/NBUaGDVjC5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2016 What the #EURef would look like if we just had phone polls pic.twitter.com/H2FmsCtkUL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2016 What EURef would look like if it was just online polls pic.twitter.com/pOx6ALKDLI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2016 Maybe all in the polling industry should have same humility as ICM's @martinboon in the…

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If it was just online polls the referendum narrative and the betting would look very different

If it was just online polls the referendum narrative and the betting would look very different

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This week being the third of the month has seen a glut of phone polls. We’ve had ICM, ORB, Ipsos MORI and last night ComRes all showing substantial REMAIN leads. Inevitably this has had an impact on the huge EUref betting markets where on Betfair alone getting on for £0.5m is being wagered each day. As I write REMAIN’s chances are rated by the market at 79% just about the highest it has ever been. But what if there were…

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Against the trend of other recent phone polls ComRes for the Mail has the REMAIN lead getting smaller

Against the trend of other recent phone polls ComRes for the Mail has the REMAIN lead getting smaller

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New @DailyMailUK/@ITVNews #EURef poll: Remain 52% (-1)Leave 41% (+3) Turnout weighted https://t.co/wjf4rvSNck pic.twitter.com/OwoRCu10I3 — Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) May 19, 2016 New @DailyMailUK/@ITVNews #EURef poll: Remain 52% (-1)Leave 41% (+3) Turnout weighted https://t.co/wjf4rvSNck pic.twitter.com/OwoRCu10I3 — Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) May 19, 2016

Age versus social class: ComRes assess the first test for their turnout model and its implications for EURef

Age versus social class: ComRes assess the first test for their turnout model and its implications for EURef

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A special post by ComRes’s Adam Ludlow The polls for the London mayoral election performed strongly across the board, perhaps bringing pollsters some respite following last year’s General Election. But as pollsters, we must be careful never to rest on our laurels and make sure to review our methods and seek to improve when things go well, as well as when bigger problems occur. Indeed, at ComRes, the London result was of particular interest to us as it was the…

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Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet

Why REMAIN, even at the very tight odds currently available, is a value bet

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A guide by Alastair Meeks on betting on the overall EURef outcome Given the amount of heat that has been generated by the EU referendum, there has been surprisingly little discussion about the actual chances of the main event.  It’s time to put that right. At the time of writing, Remain is 1.31 on Betfair (a 76% chance)   I understand that the conventional bookies have seen Remain overwhelmingly favoured at all stages despite the short odds offered.  Should you be…

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