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LEAVE’s strong support amongst the oldies is an online phenomenon – the phone surveys paint a different picture

28/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This starts to explain the modal divide After all the discussion during the week about why the phone and online polls are showing such different pictures I’ve been examining the detailed data from he last eight polls. The area where the two modes most divide is with the oldies – the group that, as we all know is most likely to turnout on June 23rd. The chart above shows the turnout weighted percentage of those oldies expressing a voting intention…

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We are getting to a point where LEAVE could be the value bet

28/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The record-break political gamble continues Until now I have refrained from betting on the referendum quite simply because the odds on neither side appear attractive. My instinct tells me to follow the phone polls but I’m not convinced that IN has an 80%+ chance of victory. This is in spite of the fact that Britain’s longest-established phone pollster, Ipsos MORI, is showing a margin of 20% once those not expressing a voting intention are stripped out. As Keiran Pedley argued…

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The EU can’t have its Turkey and eat it

28/5/2016 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

The EURef highlights Europe’s ambivalence to its buffer state “Bridge Together”: Istanbul’s slogan for its unsuccessful 2020 Olympic bid captured well the country’s unifying potential, linking as it does not only Europe and Asia but also the secular west with the Islamic Middle East. A bridge, however, needs firm foundations and Turkey, rather than pulling two sides together, is more swayed by the forces pulling it in opposite directions. Hence the force of the arguments this week about its potential…

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The Friday night BREXIT numbers – the polls and the betting

27/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The trend on the Betfair Exchange

LEAVE’s repeated refusal to accept that its £50m a day claim is untrue could cause problems if it wins

27/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Leave campaign’s central claim about the cost of the EU is basically a lie. https://t.co/DD2cR4hHVq — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) May 27, 2016 The basis for ministers to dismiss such a referendum result perhaps? Yet again the independent statistics watchdog has had to step in a declare that the key number that forms the basis of the LEAVE campaign is untrue. This has been used consistently by the outers and it has formed the basis for the core message. It…

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Making sense of the EUref polls? Watch discussion with Matt Singh, Keiran Pedley & Mike Smithson in PB Polling Matters TV Show

27/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

We’re back. After a gap of three weeks while our hosts, Tip TV, moved into new premises the PB/Polling Matters TV show is on the air and inevitability it was dominated by the referendum. Keiran Pedley and I were joined by Matt Singh from Number Cruncher Politics. Is Leave really losing and what changes are pollsters making to their methods as polling day approaches? We also look ahead at the implications of the referendum on British politics in the longer…

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Local By-Election Preview : May 26th 2016

26/5/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Northallerton South (Con defence) on Hambleton Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 27, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 26) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,414, 758 (49%) United Kingdom Independence Party 762 (26%) Labour 739, 654 (25%) Candidates duly nominated: Caroline Dickinson (Con), Chris Pearson (Yorkshire First), Dave Robertson (UKIP), David Tickle (Lab) Northallerton (Con defence) on North Yorkshire Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 45, Independents…

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This looks like how REMAIN will play the closing four weeks

26/5/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This has been doing the rounds on Twitter & looks like the first Saatchi poster for REMAIN pic.twitter.com/439bBFCoA9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 26, 2016 Sowing seeds of doubt has been successful before The poster above has started being circulated on Twitter and my guess is that its is part of the Saatchi & Saatchi campaign for IN. The clarity of approach with a very simple message and even the typeface appear to be Saatchi house style. Whatever it is…

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