The record-break political gamble continues
Until now I have refrained from betting on the referendum quite simply because the odds on neither side appear attractive. My instinct tells me to follow the phone polls but I’m not convinced that IN has an 80%+ chance of victory. This is in spite of the fact that Britain’s longest-established phone pollster, Ipsos MORI, is showing a margin of 20% once those not expressing a voting intention are stripped out.
As Keiran Pedley argued in our latest TV Show there hasn’t been a big move to REMAIN in the polls – it is just that we are seeing many more phone surveys. From a period when everything was online, and better numbers for LEAVE, the past two weeks has seen the telephone polls outnumber the internet ones.
I have a target price for LEAVE and plan to bet if/when the price moves to that.
This comes down to the old formula that a value bet is one where your assessment of the outcome happening is greater than the betting price.