ConHome leader June 2016 next leader survey Last night on Sky News we saw the current Tory leader, tonight shall we be seeing the next Tory leader? My betting strategy says no. Tonight Michael Gove, who has led the ConHome readers’ vote to be next Tory leader for the last three will be putting the Leave side on Sky News. Whilst I have many doubts about the ConHome polling, not least because it offers a range of options to the…
Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks says one way or another we shall have a referendum result in three weeks’ time and one side will have won and one side will have lost. What next for the losing side? If Remain lose The way forward for Remain if they lose is straightforward, even if it is unpalatable to them. It will be time to give up. There should be no talk of reruns, no attempts to finesse the negotiations to…
Oban North and Lorn (Ind defence, elected as SNP) on Argyll and Bute Result of council at last election (2012) : Independents 15, Scottish Nationalists 13, Liberal Democrats 4, Conservatives 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Independents 421, 807, 125, 361, 222, 58 (55%) Scottish National Party 410, 707 (31%) Conservatives 332 (9%) Liberal Democrats 188 (5%) Candidates duly nominated: Kieron Green (Ind), David Pollard (Lib Dem),…
In this week’s edition Keiran is joined by Rob Vance and Leo Barasi, where they discuss the latest EU polls – is Leave catching up? Keiran argues Leave should focus on immigration whilst Rob and Leo disagree The also discuss the next Tory leader, is Michael Gove King or Kingmaker? Also discussed Why Bob the Builder is a classic C2 swing. The audio only version of the podcast is here TSE
The Sun front page from last Friday, after another poor set of net immigration figures for Cameron This referendum could boil down to Cameron v The Tory Press. If Cameron prevails, it could be good news for Corbyn. One of the most fascinating aspects of this referendum campaign is a Tory PM and most of the Tory Press being on opposite sides. As Neil Kinnock and Ed Miliband can attest the press can very brutal. Whilst I don’t subscribe to…
Who is winning the EU referendum ground war? https://t.co/xxesPrwhy9 pic.twitter.com/WksVrowXTu — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) June 1, 2016 Matthew Goodwin has done some analysis and finds “The EU Referendum Events Project at the Universities of Kent and Nottingham, which is mapping campaign events in real time, shows Remain is far more active than Leave, the bulk of the activity on both sides is concentrated on London, and Brexit backers have yet to target northern England, which should be fertile ground for Eurosceptics.” Meanwhile over on twitter Twitter have…
In past plebiscites polls tend to overstate the change option @StephenDFisher analysis finds https://t.co/OPcbNigYyC pic.twitter.com/Ji9p5o65Kl — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 1, 2016 Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick have analysed past referenda in the UK, and they notice that We reflect on the historical experience of polls for referendums in the UK. The graph shows the levels of support for the change option (excluding Don’t Knows) in polls and the final outcome for all ten referendums in the UK for which there…
If on June 23rd there are major movements on the betting and currency markets this is why. https://t.co/cKY5lx3Xtl pic.twitter.com/Q9GcWfQZMh — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 31, 2016 A private exit poll could trigger a run on Sterling and impact the outcome of the referendum The FT are reporting that Hedge funds and investment banks have commissioned private exit polls in an attempt to make profits from the result of the UK’s referendum on EU membership next month. By finding out the voting patterns…