Hillary Clinton wins a majority of pledged delegates but Sanders fights on after having his California dreams ruined

Hillary Clinton wins a majority of pledged delegates but Sanders fights on after having his California dreams ruined

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Clinton wins a majority of pledged delegates but Sanders intends to fight to the convention https://t.co/GxidqTD8Q6 pic.twitter.com/w27IG4g96g — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2016 Latest Dem delegate count, after last nights results pic.twitter.com/605hfPFjMU — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2016 A sign of Trump's lack of electability? https://t.co/ZMGUEOspot pic.twitter.com/FDaQageYfJ — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2016 The punters at Betfair think Remain has the same chance of winning the #EURef as Clinton has winning The White House pic.twitter.com/RO9jPtbcxk — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 8,…

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A proxy bet for a Leave victory

A proxy bet for a Leave victory

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Brexit might kill Scottish nationalism stone dead the same way devolution did. Sometimes when you think the value on a particular bet has gone, and you have to look for a proxy bet elsewhere, with with the best price on Leave winning at 13/5 perhaps the backing the 5/1 on the next Scottish independence referendum happening before 2020 could be a good proxy bet. Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon have been saying on several occasions, “Scottish independence would happen within two…

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Europe: The final countdown, Sixteen days to go

Europe: The final countdown, Sixteen days to go

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Latest Betfair odds. Nearly £21 million matched so far this could be the biggest event in political betting history pic.twitter.com/IlPAYfGpJA — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 7, 2016 What will the odds be after the Farage & Cameron TV show this evening? And what to make of this by Daniel Hannan? @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit — Joe Watts (@JoeWatts_) June 7, 2016…

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Latest YouGov poll suggests Remain might experience a caTAFFstrophe in Wales

Latest YouGov poll suggests Remain might experience a caTAFFstrophe in Wales

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Latest @YouGov poll suggests the potential for a caTAFFstrophe for Remain in Wales https://t.co/HQUHUNKFTw pic.twitter.com/aivZvkc5EM — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 7, 2016 Taking the 2/1 on Wales voting to Leave seems like the value option This morning there was an EU Referendum poll of Wales by YouGov, they found The two sides of the debate over the UK’s future in the EU are “dead level” in Wales,  political expert Roger Scully has said. Remain and Leave are both on 41%, with…

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Alastair Meeks on How Conservative Leavers could gift Labour the next election

Alastair Meeks on How Conservative Leavers could gift Labour the next election

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Asked Boris to explain fall in £ after leave poll lead. "The pound will go where it will in the short term". Concession of short term pain — Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) June 6, 2016 The 2015 general election result was a surprise to almost everyone.  After the event, those who had not predicted the Conservative overall majority hastened to explain why it had happened.  One of the prime underlying causes alighted upon after the event was Labour’s catastrophic reputation on…

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Tonight’s EURef polling gives contradictory trends, but both have Remain ahead

Tonight’s EURef polling gives contradictory trends, but both have Remain ahead

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Exclusive: Times/YouGov EUref poll sees Leave Lead disappear – 1pt lead for "remain" pic.twitter.com/pDAmammHRS — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) June 6, 2016 New ORB EUREF phone poll Remain 48 (-3) Leave 47 (+1) — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 6, 2016 Sir Lynton Crosby's write up of the ORB poll https://t.co/GT5NuB8R4z pic.twitter.com/DVgwpnoLYo — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 6, 2016 I’m finding all of this very confusing, head says Remain are going to win this, heart says Leave is going to win. Just imagine…

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As voter registration for the referendum closes tomorrow some facts and figures

As voter registration for the referendum closes tomorrow some facts and figures

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YOU CAN’T VOTE… if you’re not registered by 7 June. Get #EURefReady now: https://t.co/foV9P04QKN! pic.twitter.com/eP1VJjEdMy — Electoral Commission (@ElectoralCommUK) June 6, 2016 Via @danbarker Voter registration statistics day by day pic.twitter.com/37fPjH7r4H — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 5, 2016 The Electoral Commission say: Since the launch of the Electoral Commission’s public awareness campaign on 15 May, over 1.35 million people have applied to register to vote online across Great Britain. Applications facts and figures  • The day with the biggest number of…

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What are Remain doing wrong, part. II.

What are Remain doing wrong, part. II.

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ICM online EURef poll Leave 48 (+1) Remain 43 (-1) https://t.co/Nd46cXexFt pic.twitter.com/hbu5kh2cJV — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 6, 2016 Guest slot by Mortimer A few weeks ago I asserted here that focusing on the economy was a strategy that might not be working for Remain because a doubtful public no longer trust economic forecasts, and even amongst those who do, some – especially better off pensioners – might decide that a small economic correction was a price worth paying for greater…

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