Austria-Hungary does not have a good press nowadays. It is vaguely thought of as an autocratic dysfunctional empire whose demise was unmourned. Lands that once formed a single empire that had been ruled by the Hapsburgs for centuries are now shared between a dozen independent countries. No one clamours for it to be reconstituted. Is this a parable for the fate of the EU? Perhaps. But the parable might be a bit more complex than that. For a start, Austria-Hungary…
Via @britainelects @ComResPolls #EURef Phone poll Remain: 46% (-6)Leave: 45% (+4)https://t.co/wKQDVraRB1 — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 14, 2016 If this poll is accurate, the UK is Never Gonna Give EU Up As with other recent referendum polls there’s been a big swing to Leave, it is a reflection of the poor position Remain find themselves in that they’ll be delighted with a 1% per cent lead. The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the…
We have a @ComResPolls EU referendum survey in tmrw's paper. On https://t.co/h3db4EEDTR at 10pm. Some dramatic movement since last month. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) June 14, 2016 The TNS #EUref poll is officially out now https://t.co/RwewVp85ke pic.twitter.com/1s3TiekNYS — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 14, 2016 Remember sometimes perceptions matter more than the facts £30bn wiped off FTSE today, Remain camp point out. Purely on back of Brexit fears. And other European stock markets falling too — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) June…
Expertise is a valuable skill but one of the problems with experts is that all that knowledge can leave you unwilling or unable to persuade. If you think, if you know that X is the right answer and yet people persist in not agreeing, it is hard not to feel infuriated, not to feel that some combination of wilful stupidity and/or ignorance and/or bloody-mindedness is refusing to accept the obvious. And it is easy from there to fall into the…
The Brexit paradox: The more likely it looks to happen the less likely it is to happen? After yesterday’s polls it might be easy to say Monday the 13th of June was the day the day polls turned, but as that Guardian front page above shows, it is never wise to assume things like that. One of the reasons is that earlier on this month I spoke to someone who is working for Vote Leave, and they were worried about…
ORB Phone poll All Voters Remain 49 (-3) Leave 44 (+4) Certain to vote Leave 49 (+2) Remain 48 (nc) — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 13, 2016 The headline figures with Remain ahead by 5% is the figure ORB wishes to be judged on, whilst the Telegraph prefers to focus on the certain to vote figures. However what will really concern Remain is that Sir Lynton Crosby says Leave’s tactics ‘maybe paying off’ Whilst YouGov has Leave 7% ahead Exclusive –…
Latest Betfair odds. Leave was only a 16% chance a few weeks ago. £1.8m matched in the last day. £26m matched so far pic.twitter.com/qvHmwuHQrK — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 13, 2016 The latest ICM polls for The Guardian are out. Support for leaving the EU is strengthening, with both phone and online surveys reporting a six-point lead, according to a new pair of Guardian/ICM polls. Leave now enjoys a 53%-47% advantage once “don’t knows” are excluded, according to the research conducted…