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Ipsos Mori phone poll sees a 10% swing to Leave as Leave take a 6% lead – Update Survation sees Leave take the lead

16/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Overall population split down middle – BUT voters favour LEAVE #EUref pic.twitter.com/3AVo4Y35E7 — Ben Page (@benatipsos) June 16, 2016 The plethora of (significant) Leave leads are at variance with Betfair. David Cameron is finding EU Can’t Always Get What You Want. He must be feeling like Gonville Bromhead, as he’s told the pollsters report Brextieers….millions of them. What this poll finds is that the focus on immigration and Turkey is working for Leave whilst the Remain attack lines on the economy…

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The locomotive of politics

16/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Take a deep breath. The scent in your nostrils is the dusty burnt smell of scorched earth politics from the referendum. George Osborne has pre-launched the emergency budget he would advocate in the event of a Leave vote, to the fury of half of his own party’s backbenchers. Dozens have already publicly declared that they would vote against it. Just as extraordinarily, the Leave camp have issued their manifesto should they win. These policies, none of which have been through…

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PB/Polling Matters TV show June 15th: The EU Referendum special

15/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

This week is Keiran Pedley is joined by Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes, Professor Matthew Goodwin of the University of Kent, and Adam Ludlow of ComRes. The topics under discussion were the EU referendum polling, betting odds, turnout, immigration vs the economy, The Sun endorsement, and the implications for Cameron and Corbyn. The audio only version is below TSE

The Austro-Hungarian parable

15/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Austria-Hungary does not have a good press nowadays. It is vaguely thought of as an autocratic dysfunctional empire whose demise was unmourned. Lands that once formed a single empire that had been ruled by the Hapsburgs for centuries are now shared between a dozen independent countries. No one clamours for it to be reconstituted. Is this a parable for the fate of the EU? Perhaps. But the parable might be a bit more complex than that. For a start, Austria-Hungary…

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Which of the following areas will have the highest Remain share of the vote

15/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Remain retain their lead with ComRes. Just.

14/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Via @britainelects @ComResPolls #EURef Phone poll Remain: 46% (-6)Leave: 45% (+4)https://t.co/wKQDVraRB1 — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 14, 2016 If this poll is accurate, the UK is Never Gonna Give EU Up As with other recent referendum polls there’s been a big swing to Leave, it is a reflection of the poor position Remain find themselves in that they’ll be delighted with a 1% per cent lead. The primary reasons I’m so interested in ComRes’ phone polls is that they were the…

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As we await tonight’s ComRes phone poll a bad narrative is developing for Leave

14/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

We have a @ComResPolls EU referendum survey in tmrw's paper. On https://t.co/h3db4EEDTR at 10pm. Some dramatic movement since last month. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) June 14, 2016 The TNS #EUref poll is officially out now https://t.co/RwewVp85ke pic.twitter.com/1s3TiekNYS — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 14, 2016 Remember sometimes perceptions matter more than the facts £30bn wiped off FTSE today, Remain camp point out. Purely on back of Brexit fears. And other European stock markets falling too — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) June…

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Cyclefree on Experts v Commoners

14/6/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Expertise is a valuable skill but one of the problems with experts is that all that knowledge can leave you unwilling or unable to persuade. If you think, if you know that X is the right answer and yet people persist in not agreeing, it is hard not to feel infuriated, not to feel that some combination of wilful stupidity and/or ignorance and/or bloody-mindedness is refusing to accept the obvious. And it is easy from there to fall into the…

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