The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reflecting on the longest week in politics that just about anybody can remember

The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reflecting on the longest week in politics that just about anybody can remember

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi try and make sense of what has happened in the past week – as news of Theresa May’s poll lead over Boris Johnson and Michael Gove’s decision to stand for Tory leader breaks all around them. They discuss why Britain decided to leave the EU, the polling, who will be the next Prime Minister and what now for the Labour Party. You can follow Keiran on twitter at @keiranpedley…

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Just months before the US looks set to elect a female President both main UK party leaders could be women

Just months before the US looks set to elect a female President both main UK party leaders could be women

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The dramatic feminisation of the political world Today, just a week after the referendum, there’s expected to be big developments over the Conservative and Labour leaderships. Nominations for the successor to Cameron close and reports suggest that Angela Eagle will announce that she’s seeking the 51 required nominations to contest the Labour leadership. The latest YouGov poll of Conservative members, the group that will ultimately decide the party leadership and next PM, has unexpectedly found that the Home Secretary, Theresa…

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Huge YouGov boost for Theresa May on the night before nominations close

Huge YouGov boost for Theresa May on the night before nominations close

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The first poll of members has big CON member backing for the Home Secretary First YouGov CON members poll has Theresa May with big lead over Johnson pic.twitter.com/K64gpyrVuk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 29, 2016 YouGov CON members poll match-up between main contenders pic.twitter.com/uiAXFSKei2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 29, 2016 At the 2001 and 2005 CON leadership elections YouGov member polls got the final outcome almost dead on — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 29, 2016 Let us lust remind…

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Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of breathtaking proportions

Alastair Meeks on the political and economic crises of breathtaking proportions

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Where do we go now? One of the most haunting Arthurian legends concerns Sir Balin.  Merlin had long prophesied that he would “strike a stroke most dolorous that ever man struck”.  Shrugging off this particular instance of Project Fear from an expert, Sir Balin entered into a feud with the family of King Pellam.  Being pursued by the king through his castle, Sir Balin seized “a marvellous spear strangely wrought” and dealt a fierce blow to the king.  The spear…

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Team Corbyn shouldn’t assume that he’ll get “three quidders” vote like last time

Team Corbyn shouldn’t assume that he’ll get “three quidders” vote like last time

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Stubborn Corbyn at his most tricky PMQs. He can't go on like this pic.twitter.com/dXs4YXrno7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 29, 2016 Things have moved on since last September I’m hearing that plans are afoot by those who want Corbyn out to replicate his very successful campaign a year ago to win the “three quid” vote. These were those who were able to take part in the leadership election by registering as party supporters by paying £3. Then there was a…

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An SDP Mark 2 is now a real possibility within 4 months

An SDP Mark 2 is now a real possibility within 4 months

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It’s war within Labour and one side must lose To have publicly lost the confidence of three-quarters of your MPs would normally be regarded as a resigning matter. In 1995, John Major set himself the private target in his party’s leadership election of 65% of his MPs, aware that without a substantial lead his authority would be terminally damaged. Indeed, the Tory leadership election rules at the time required a 15% lead in the first round in order to ensure…

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The Conservatives’ paradoxical leadership contest

The Conservatives’ paradoxical leadership contest

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Embed from Getty Images   Both Theresa and Boris wanted to lose the referendum If Leave had gone down to a narrow defeat, Boris Johnson would have had all the power with none of the responsibility. He would also have had a senior Cabinet role for a year or two, and a chance to prove himself at that level. There’d be no immediate crisis to manage, and any trouble from Europe – and there would surely have been some –…

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Corbyn loses the confidence vote by a huge margin

Corbyn loses the confidence vote by a huge margin

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The short statement pic.twitter.com/N8zgSUSSsI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 28, 2016 https://twitter.com/STJamesl/status/747815002569060352 What a devastating indictment from his colleagues . The big question is what now? What will happen over PMQs tomorrow. Is he going to soldier on?