It would be a mistake for May to become leader & PM without a membership election

It would be a mistake for May to become leader & PM without a membership election

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Remember Brown who was spared that inconvenience? There’s said to be talks taking place amongst “senior Tories” that if May wins convincingly in the first MP ballot on Tuesday then the other contenders should be asked to step aside so that the Home Secretary could start her job immediately. It sounds seductive but it would be a serious mistake. The most recent precedent was Gordon Brown’s elevation to the party leadership and Number 10 in 2007. In order to prevent…

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10 Tips for the Tory Leadership contest

10 Tips for the Tory Leadership contest

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TELEGRAPH: Matt in college #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/rTYavnuJ57 — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) July 1, 2016 What to bear in mind when anticipating developments 1. This is not Leave v Remain again We have just been through a highly divisive referendum campaign and apart from the country itself, nothing was more divided than the Conservative Party. However, divisions can be, and are being, overplayed. Some in the media would have you believe that the Tories are split into two immutably hostile blocks. They’re…

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The skids are under Jeremy. Members should get the chance to put him out of his misery.

The skids are under Jeremy. Members should get the chance to put him out of his misery.

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  Don Brind argues against the Labour leader stepping down in favour of a unity candidate. Jeremy Corbyn must be ousted by the members if Labour’s credibility with the voters is to have any chance of being rescued. The idea of him standing down in favour of a unity candidate is understandable – but wrong. The evidence from the polling and from local reports is that his support is eroding fast. I am convinced that he can and will be beaten…

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A nice problem to have: Cash in my 90/1 & 65/1 bets on Leadsom now or wait for the race to evolve

A nice problem to have: Cash in my 90/1 & 65/1 bets on Leadsom now or wait for the race to evolve

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What are the chances of her doing it? On May 25h while perusing the Betfair next CON leader odds I saw that Andrea Leadson was available at 90 and immediately took the few pounds that was available that price. It then slipped down to 65, 55 46 nd 44 and I took that as well. My next bet on Leadsom was at 9.31am, just after Cameron had resigned, when I got 65. The result is that I’m sitting on a…

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New YouGov polling finds that Corbyn has lost his LAB members’ lifeline. He now looks doomed

New YouGov polling finds that Corbyn has lost his LAB members’ lifeline. He now looks doomed

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44% of LAB members tell YouGov that Corbyn should step down NOW. 41% say he should carry on. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2016 YouGov His equivocal & lacklustre referendum campaign has damaged him with the members he needs Above are some of the key findings from a new YouGov poll of LAB party members – the very people that Corbyn is looking to to help keep him in his job. He’s portraying his current battle with his MPs…

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After the most dramatic post-war week in British politics the first electoral tests: Tonight’s local by-elections

After the most dramatic post-war week in British politics the first electoral tests: Tonight’s local by-elections

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St. Michael’s (Con defence) on Bexley Result of council at last election (2014): Conservatives 45, Labour 15, United Kingdom Independence Party 3 (Conservative majority of 27) Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,352, 1,314, 1,140 (35%) United Kingdom Independence Party 1,280 (33%) Labour 857, 769, 720 (22%) British National Party 407 (10%) Candidates duly nominated: Keith Forster (UKIP), Michael Jones (BNP), Sam Marchant (Lab), Derek Moran (Green), Simone Reynolds (Lib Dem), Ray Sams (Con)…

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The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reflecting on the longest week in politics that just about anybody can remember

The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reflecting on the longest week in politics that just about anybody can remember

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi try and make sense of what has happened in the past week – as news of Theresa May’s poll lead over Boris Johnson and Michael Gove’s decision to stand for Tory leader breaks all around them. They discuss why Britain decided to leave the EU, the polling, who will be the next Prime Minister and what now for the Labour Party. You can follow Keiran on twitter at @keiranpedley…

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