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And to bring us all down to earth tonight’s Local By-elections

7/7/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Mostyn (Lab defence) on Conwy Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 19, Conservatives 13, Plaid Cymru 12, Labour 10, Liberal Democrats 5 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 11) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Independents 250, 235, 72, 38, 33(46%) Labour 436 (28%) Conservatives 243, 199 (20%) Liberal Democrats 131 (6%) Referendum Result: REMAIN 30,147 (46%) LEAVE 35,357 (54%) on a turnout of 72% Candidates duly nominated: Penelope Appleton (Lib Dem), Richard Enston…

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In many ways Andrea Leadsom looks like Britain’s Sarah Palin

7/7/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

"My overall approach to Putin -absolutely tell him he needs to abide by internatioal law" PM candidate Leadsom to me https://t.co/lzTQcwzgBw — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) July 7, 2016 The similarities with the former Alaska Governor are striking argues Keiran Pedley and therefore Theresa May is surely Britain’s next Prime Minister. Video has emerged this afternoon of an interview with Conservative candidate for Prime Minister Andrea Leadsom and Sky News Political Editor Faisal Islam. Although it is not as bad as…

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Recorded for posterity the biggest ever political betting market that was wrong until 5 hours after polls closed

7/7/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Extraordinary 90 day EURef betting chart on the £120m Betfair market. LEAVE wasn't favourite till 3am on Jun 24th pic.twitter.com/Fpr06yxTvB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2016 And on the final day Peak REMAIN 2210 June 23rd pic.twitter.com/A2Ot15QFyX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2016

Polling boost for May ahead of the 2nd round of MP voting – bad news for Gove

7/7/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

If May does become PM then she can expect a polling honeymoon There’s a new national phone poll out from Survation which has CON 36%, LAB 32%, UKIP 12% and LD 9%. The poll also asked favourability questions about the five who were the Tory leadership race until Tuesday evening. The figures are in the chart above and show Theresa May in a totally dominating position with Michael Gove trailing badly. We are, of course, in the first stage of…

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On the day Chilcot was published the latest PB/Polling Matters podcast looks at the legacy of Iraq & asks whether Theresa May is now unstoppable

6/7/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran and Rob discuss the legacy of Iraq on British politics and the latest on the Tory leadership contest. This episode includes a detailed discussion on recent YouGov polling that shows Theresa May in a commanding position and Keiran argues that the Tories should consider crowning the Home Secretary as Prime Minister early. Meanwhile, the team discuss whether a Labour MP that supported the Iraq War can really hope to lead the Labour Party…

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The CON race: A new poll, a May campaign denial and more from Leadsom’s past

6/7/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Survation survey of 1000+ CON councillors finds May 46.2% Leadsom 21.8 Gove 5.1 DK/Refused 22.8 A statement from the May campaign .@TheresaMay2016 trying to kill off rumours her backers are planning vote for #Gove tomorrow to knock #Leadsom out pic.twitter.com/TwjWK3HgSK — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) July 6, 2016 More on Leadsom Attacks on Leadsom conitnue. Blasted for ‘extremist’ web posts on sex outside marriage and attacking gay adoption https://t.co/vrlhBVxniZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 6, 2016

YouGov CON member ratings of the three still in the race raise questions over Gove

6/7/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

But very good for May In its recent party membership polling YouGov has introduced a ratings question with a simple format “Generally speaking, do you have a positive or negative opinion of the following people?” In the context of the fight for Number 10 this might have quite a bearing. What’s interesting is to look at responses based on how those sampled voted in the referendum. May rates at 89%-2% amongst remainers but still a respectable 67%-17% with leavers. Leadsom,…

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Important to remember that the role of CON MPs is to decide the shortlist – not who becomes next leader

5/7/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The final decision is taken by the members in a postal ballot The CON race has moved on fast following tonight’s first round of MP voting and the decision of Crabb to drop out and back May. The next stage is Thursday’s second round of MP voting to decide the shortlist of two that will go to the members. Certainly the Home Secretary is in an enormously strong position coming out of the first round so well and now having…

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