As Trump prepares to give a defining speech on the economy the good polling news for Clinton continues

As Trump prepares to give a defining speech on the economy the good polling news for Clinton continues

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Trump’s best hope is by becoming more boring This from the excellent Rick Klein of ABC neatly sums up where we are and what Trump needs to do:- ” It’s not just that Donald Trump needs to pivot – it’s that he needs to pivot away from being what’s made him Donald Trump. That means traditional-candidate Trump, maybe even boring-candidate Trump, reading from notes or TelePrompTers, and staying away from interviews and Twitter for a while. (Not coincidentally, Hillary Clinton…

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Smith’s leadership chances fall to a 6% chance on Betfair following High Court ruling on who’ll be able to vote

Smith’s leadership chances fall to a 6% chance on Betfair following High Court ruling on who’ll be able to vote

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https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/762596287661412352 #Breaking Five new members of the Labour Party win High Court battle over right to vote in leadership election pic.twitter.com/zwwbh4M4lu — PA Media (@PA) August 8, 2016 FOR SALE: Spare vote in Labour leadership contest. One previous, careful owner. Unused. £25 o.n.o — Robert Harris (@Robert___Harris) August 8, 2016 https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/762592462732926976 It is very hard to come to a view about what will be the electoral impact of today’s judgement. There is so much overlap between the new members who…

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At the end of April YouGov had Corbyn beating Theresa May by 7% on its “best PM” ratings?

At the end of April YouGov had Corbyn beating Theresa May by 7% on its “best PM” ratings?

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How Britain’s politics have totally changed Back at the end of April when the Tories were totally split on the referendum YouGov tested how Corbyn did in its “best PM” polling against Cameron and a number of possible other contenders for the Tory leadership. The LAB leader trailed the then PM by just 7% and was only 5% behind Boris. Perhaps not remarkably he had a 13% lead over Osborne and what’s interesting now is in the chart – Corbyn…

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Cyclefree suggests that Smith and Corbyn go back to Labour’s roots

Cyclefree suggests that Smith and Corbyn go back to Labour’s roots

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A guest slot on the contest for the LAB leadership The current fight for the leadership of the Labour Party seems so far to be presented as a choice between who will make the better leader, with the requirements of leadership being defined either as the person most in tune with the membership or the person most able to win votes from non-members.  Nothing unusual about this, you might think.  There seems to be very little difference on policy, as…

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The Vladimir Putin link looks set to dog the Trump campaign right through to November

The Vladimir Putin link looks set to dog the Trump campaign right through to November

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Seriously, what is going on with Trump and Russia? https://t.co/N6ySNILYMx — Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) August 6, 2016 His lack of response make it easy for it to be portrayed in the most negative fashion Above is a new ad from the Clinton campaign seeking to raise doubts over Trump’s linkages with the Russian President Vladimir Putin. It seems to have been aimed at the Republican party establishment and I think it is very effective. The Putin element has increasingly become…

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The Lib Dems are coming off life-support: something else for Labour to worry about

The Lib Dems are coming off life-support: something else for Labour to worry about

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How closely are we going to re-run the 1980s? We’ve not heard much from the Lib Dems lately. The party which until last year supplied the Deputy Prime Minister, the Business Secretary and three other cabinet ministers, which before the election had more than fifty MPs and which had been treated by the media almost on an equal footing with the Conservatives and Labour simply disappeared from view. A year on and there are signs that a tentative recovery might…

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Hillary Clinton appears to be doing much better in polls conducted with live interviews

Hillary Clinton appears to be doing much better in polls conducted with live interviews

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“Shy Trump” supporters – possibly? Above is the national WH2016 polling for the past ten days. Clinton’s ahead in all but notice the big difference between those surveys which were conducted by live interviewers over the phone and those which used the internet or automated phone calls to get responses. The trend is clear. Hillary does much better when those sampled are talking to a real person. When that’s not how the poll was conducted we see a different picture….

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