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After being a polling phenomenon Boris Johnson joins the negative ratings club

17/8/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Being a cabinet minister means he’s much less in the limelight One of the PB YouGov Favourability Ratings that hasn’t attracted much attention is that for the former longstanding favourite to succeed Cameron, the ex-Mayor and current Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson. He recorded a net minus 5 which wasn’t so bad compared with the other politicians in the list but significantly means he’s now in negative territory. Only his boss of UK politicians in the list, Theresa May,is viewed more…

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Latest prices from WH2016 and the LAB leadership

16/8/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Next President 2016 LAB Leadership Contest

The polling evidence against Corbyn mounts. Smith’s beating him by 24% as “best PM”

16/8/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

By 58% to 42% those polled by BMG say Smith would make best leader. Smith wins best comparison by 62 to 38https://t.co/TaOtCC9Lct — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 16, 2016 From today’s PB YouGov poll The response from JC's own generation, 65+, looks terrible for Labour. These people vote pic.twitter.com/aseafF5YNi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 16, 2016

Introducing the PB/YouGov Favourability Ratings – a new development by the site

16/8/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

First survey has Corbyn ahead of Trump, Putin AND Cameron As many will know I am a great fan of leader ratings which I believe are a better pointer to political outcomes than voting intention numbers. There are several different formats. Ipsos-MORI ask about “satisfaction”, Opinium goes for straight approval number while the standard YouGov question is asking the sample whether those named are doing well or badly. The format I like best and the one which the standard in…

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Nigel Farage: the Comeback, Comeback, Comeback Kid?

15/8/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Ex-UKIP leader Farage on Vladimir Putin’s Russia Today He appears to be planning a FOURTH return to the UKIP leadership When Farage quit the UKIP leadership many were speculating that this was not the last we would see him flying the UKIP flag and there’ve been hints that this is the case. he In an interview on Russia Today suggested that he in fact might return as UKIP leader if Brexit is not delivered as he would like. He added…

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Don Brind says there’s no solid evidence for making Corbyn odds on favourite. He could lose.

15/8/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Momentum might being beaten at their own game Back in 2007 I emailed Mike Smithson: “You should advise your readers: ‘don’t bet on an election unless you understand the voting system’” At the time the pollsters and the bookies were making Alan Johnson favourite to become Labour deputy leader. I was a member of Harriet Harman’s campaign and I knew how much effort was going into getting second preferences from other candidates. In the event, the second preferences from John…

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If elected, will Hillary or the Donald be impeached?

14/8/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Will one of them become the first POTUS to be successfully impeached? Paddy Power have a market up on if Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be impeached and resign during their first term. I have a few concerns with this bet, for example the impeachment process against Richard Nixon never completed to full impeachment, as Nixon resigned as President before the House of Representatives formally impeached him, so if something similar happened, this bet wouldn’t pay out, also that…

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The Tories set to re-introduce Fox hunting with hounds if the International Trade Secretary doesn’t wind his neck in

14/8/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Liam Fox and Boris Johnson locked in feud over who controls Britain's foreign policy https://t.co/lmXFdd3A7O — Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) August 13, 2016 Taking the 10/1 on Liam Fox being the first cabinet minister to leave the cabinet looks tempting. Today’s Sunday Telegraph has a story which says Liam Fox and Boris Johnson are locked in a bitter Whitehall feud over who controls key parts of Britain’s foreign policy, a leaked letter seen by The Telegraph reveals. Just weeks after the two men joined…

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