Latest prices from WH2016 and the LAB leadership
Next President 2016 LAB Leadership Contest
The polling evidence against Corbyn mounts. Smith’s beating him by 24% as “best PM”
By 58% to 42% those polled by BMG say Smith would make best leader. Smith wins best comparison by 62 to 38https://t.co/TaOtCC9Lct — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 16, 2016 From today’s PB YouGov poll The response from JC's own generation, 65+, looks terrible for Labour. These people vote pic.twitter.com/aseafF5YNi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 16, 2016
Introducing the PB/YouGov Favourability Ratings – a new development by the site
First survey has Corbyn ahead of Trump, Putin AND Cameron As many will know I am a great fan of leader ratings which I believe are a better pointer to political outcomes than voting intention numbers. There are several different formats. Ipsos-MORI ask about “satisfaction”, Opinium goes for straight approval number while the standard YouGov question is asking the sample whether those named are doing well or badly. The format I like best and the one which the standard in…
Nigel Farage: the Comeback, Comeback, Comeback Kid?
Ex-UKIP leader Farage on Vladimir Putin’s Russia Today He appears to be planning a FOURTH return to the UKIP leadership When Farage quit the UKIP leadership many were speculating that this was not the last we would see him flying the UKIP flag and there’ve been hints that this is the case. he In an interview on Russia Today suggested that he in fact might return as UKIP leader if Brexit is not delivered as he would like. He added…
Don Brind says there’s no solid evidence for making Corbyn odds on favourite. He could lose.
Momentum might being beaten at their own game Back in 2007 I emailed Mike Smithson: “You should advise your readers: ‘don’t bet on an election unless you understand the voting system’” At the time the pollsters and the bookies were making Alan Johnson favourite to become Labour deputy leader. I was a member of Harriet Harman’s campaign and I knew how much effort was going into getting second preferences from other candidates. In the event, the second preferences from John…
If elected, will Hillary or the Donald be impeached?
Will one of them become the first POTUS to be successfully impeached? Paddy Power have a market up on if Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be impeached and resign during their first term. I have a few concerns with this bet, for example the impeachment process against Richard Nixon never completed to full impeachment, as Nixon resigned as President before the House of Representatives formally impeached him, so if something similar happened, this bet wouldn’t pay out, also that…
The Tories set to re-introduce Fox hunting with hounds if the International Trade Secretary doesn’t wind his neck in
Liam Fox and Boris Johnson locked in feud over who controls Britain's foreign policy https://t.co/lmXFdd3A7O — Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) August 13, 2016 Taking the 10/1 on Liam Fox being the first cabinet minister to leave the cabinet looks tempting. Today’s Sunday Telegraph has a story which says Liam Fox and Boris Johnson are locked in a bitter Whitehall feud over who controls key parts of Britain’s foreign policy, a leaked letter seen by The Telegraph reveals. Just weeks after the two men joined…
The 100/1 bet on the next Labour leader that quite a few of us have taken this last week
At 50/1 Shadow Justice Secretary, Richard Burgon, remains value to be the next Labour leader Earlier on this week I decided to back Richard Burgon to be the next Labour leader at 100/1. My logic was that the Labour party is continually moving strongly towards the Corbynite left, as evidenced by the NEC election results and that the polls indicate that despite the disastrous personal polling that Corbyn has, and the mass no confidence that Labour MPs have in Corbyn,…