The Boundaries of Northern Ireland: 1921 – 2020

The Boundaries of Northern Ireland: 1921 – 2020

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1921 – 1979 The six counties of Northern Ireland (created after the creation of the Irish Free State in 1921) have been returning MP’s to Westminster centuries, but it is only since 1950 when the concept of one elector, one vote was established with the abolition of the university seats that Northern Irelan’s MP’s really started to count. It is quite amazing to think that for twenty nine years (with the UK wide boundary changes in 1955 and February 1974)…

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At the 2010 shadow cabinet elections no MPs with surnames beyond M got elected – an alphabetical discrimination classic

At the 2010 shadow cabinet elections no MPs with surnames beyond M got elected – an alphabetical discrimination classic

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Those in the 2nd half of the alphabet hit by the “can’t be arsed” effect One of the extraordinary features of Labour’s last shadow cabinet election in October 2010 is that all the nineteen winners from 49 candidates had surnames starting with letters in the first half of the alphabet. So many highly competent MPs with names in the second half of the alphabet did not manage to garner enough votes to make it across the line. It’s a well…

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Today Labour MPs are set to vote for return of shadow cabinet elections, but are they headed into a trap?

Today Labour MPs are set to vote for return of shadow cabinet elections, but are they headed into a trap?

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ICYMI LabMPs will vote tmrw on 'peace plan' to restore Shadow Cabinet elections. MPs warned the public hate disunity https://t.co/G1fooSoGjL — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) September 5, 2016 Labour’s rebel alliance may have come up with a way to castrate the Labour leader but they could be flying into a trap. Last night it was reported that Labour MPs are to vote on restoring Shadow Cabinet elections after a stark warning that they risk losing the party’s heartlands unless they…

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The single market versus immigration: what do voters really want from Brexit?

The single market versus immigration: what do voters really want from Brexit?

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  Keiran Pedley examines recent Lord Ashcroft polling on what Brexit means to voters and explains why polling can only tell us so much about the deal Theresa May should ask for. As Westminster returns from holiday and the Labour leadership contest draws to a close attention is turning to Theresa May’s debut on the world stage and what ‘Brexit means Brexit’ will actually mean in practice. This week, Lord Ashcroft has produced some polling (conducted in August) that attempts…

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Joff Wild says Owen Smith will lose, Labour will fight brutally, but the party will come through its current pain

Joff Wild says Owen Smith will lose, Labour will fight brutally, but the party will come through its current pain

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Embed from Getty Images Last week’s YouGov poll of Labour members, registered supporters and trade union affiliates giving Jeremy Corbyn a 62% to 38% lead over Owen Smith in the party’s leadership election will have surprised few, except – perhaps – Don Brind and Saving Labour (though how much they really believe the contest is too close to call is a moot point). As someone implacably opposed to Corbyn’s leadership, I have always expected him to win on 24th September…

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Why in spite of the YouGov selectorate poll Don Brind still thinks the LAB race is too close to call.

Why in spite of the YouGov selectorate poll Don Brind still thinks the LAB race is too close to call.

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Polling a changing and complex electorate is a huge challenge Mike Smithson doesn’t pay me to play safe. Or to put it another way, I write for the prestige of appearing on PB but Mike is more than happy for me to stick my neck out. And my neck has been right out there in the last few postings: suggesting that the race was “too close to call I said there was no solid evidence for making Jeremy Corbyn favourite….

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So 007, forget ISIS, your next mission is to destabilise Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership

So 007, forget ISIS, your next mission is to destabilise Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership

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YouGov release more findings from their Labour leadership poll 1/8) Corbyn supporters don’t expect him to do as well as early Blair at a general election https://t.co/pZznqotPot pic.twitter.com/Bi2tkRQd5z — YouGov (@YouGov) September 4, 2016 2/8) Even if he loses the general election, most Corbyn supporters want him to remain leader https://t.co/pZznqotPot pic.twitter.com/i60yycy2Ri — YouGov (@YouGov) September 4, 2016 3/8) 55% of Corbyn supporters in the Labour selectorate believe MI5 is working against him https://t.co/pZznqotPot pic.twitter.com/BAA0g742ge — YouGov (@YouGov) September 4,…

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Round up of 65+ polling on the man 56% of his backers think is going to lead LAB to a GE victory

Round up of 65+ polling on the man 56% of his backers think is going to lead LAB to a GE victory

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Different pollsters, different questions same picture A few days ago I Tweeted a 65+ breakdown from a recent poll and found myself being attacked for highlighting a small sample subset with all the inherent possibilities for distortion. Fair enough. So I’ve gathered the oldies data from the latest polling and put in into one chart with comparison on TMay. What’s striking is how similar the picture is from each of the surveys. The oldies simply haven’t taken to the party…

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