With polls tightening & the betting moves to Trump tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show/Podcast returns to WH2016

With polls tightening & the betting moves to Trump tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show/Podcast returns to WH2016

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Joining Keiran (on the programme is the Politco polling analyst, Steven Shepard (@POLITICO_Steve) and Federica Cocco (@federicacocco) statistical journalist at the Financial Times in the UK. The Clinton health scare on the 15th anniversary of 9/11 and her team’s reaction to it have reinforced doubts about her and have inevitably given Trump a boost. This is, of course, being reflected in the betting where the latest on the Betfair Exchange has Trump on 34/35%. Clinton is hovering around the 60%…

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First post-grammar school phone poll sees TMay’s ratings slip 4% & CON lead down 5%

First post-grammar school phone poll sees TMay’s ratings slip 4% & CON lead down 5%

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CON lead drops 5% in latest Ipsos-MORI. UKIP the main gainers CON 40% -5LAB 34% =UKIP. 9% +3LD 6%.-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 15, 2016 TMay's net Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings down 4% JC's up 1% pic.twitter.com/ReM0Uhv7MX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 15, 2016 The new PM’s honeymoon appears to be drawing to a close One of the dangers of all polling analysis is to confuse correlation with causation. It is easy to attribute polling changes to the last big…

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Corbyn and the boundary review: not the disaster for LAB that it is but an opportunity for the hard left

Corbyn and the boundary review: not the disaster for LAB that it is but an opportunity for the hard left

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Joff Wild is puzzled by the half-hearted response of Corbyn’s team. It’s as if they don’t care The only question from a Labour perspective about the result of the Parliamentary constituency review for England and Wales is just how bad it will be for the party. The most optimistic prognosis I saw was from Paul Waugh in the Huffington Post, who reported that under the new boundaries the Tories would lose 17 seats and Labour would lose 23. But probably…

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Ex-LD leader, Paddy Ashdown launches move to have one non-CON candidate in Witney

Ex-LD leader, Paddy Ashdown launches move to have one non-CON candidate in Witney

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Naughty thought Witney by-election: One non-Tory candidate with one cause: the people must have a say on the Brexit deal.Re-tweet = u favour — Paddy Ashdown (@paddyashdown) September 14, 2016 But would LAB and the LDs agree? Intriguing move from the ex-leader of the LDS, Paddy Ashdown, this evening to have a unified non-CON candidate (presumably pro-REMAIN) to fight the Tories in the upcoming Witney by-election. This is of course being held to fill the vacancy created by Cameron departure…

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Corbyn has overwhelming victory over TMay at PMQs

Corbyn has overwhelming victory over TMay at PMQs

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.@theresa_may highlights similarities – and differences – between her & @jeremycorbyn #grammarschools #PMQs https://t.co/7BtrZUXNLn — Sky News (@SkyNews) September 14, 2016 Her’s was one of the worst PM performances in years Only just got round to watching this week’s PMQs which saw Corbyn absolutely hammer the PM who seemed ill-prepared particularly on her flagship grammar school policy. It was inevitable that Corbyn would quote back at her words from David Cameron on the issue and all she could respond with…

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The boundary review is so favourable to CON because Cam/Osbo defied the Electoral Commission to fix it that way

The boundary review is so favourable to CON because Cam/Osbo defied the Electoral Commission to fix it that way

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The former Top Tory Two have left TMay a great legacy There’ve been two major changes to the electoral system that the Tories have brought which have combined together to make the boundary review so favourable to them. The first is the introduction of individual voter registration which has had the effect of seeing that millions of names on the electoral roll had initially been lost. The second is the introduction of equal sized constituencies. The big question was when…

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The polls did far better at the EU referendum than is widely perceived

The polls did far better at the EU referendum than is widely perceived

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High levels of postal voting mean we should look at the final 3 weeks not just the final polls Just got back from holiday in the south of France and am focusing on the political session at a big betting conference that I am taking part in on Friday . Inevitably we will be looking back at what happened on June 23rd – the biggest political betting election ever. There’s a widespread perception that the polls got the outcome wrong…

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First projection of new boundaries suggests that at GE2015 the CON vote share of 36.9% would have given it a majority of 40

First projection of new boundaries suggests that at GE2015 the CON vote share of 36.9% would have given it a majority of 40

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This compares with the 12 they actually achieved Well done to UK Polling Report’s Anthony Wells for the speed he has got his boundary projection out. Based on ward by ward his computation of the proposals Wells projects the above changes in the reduced size parliament. As can be seen LAB are the biggest losers and in relative terms the Tories are the big winners. The LDs would lose half their GE2015 seats and out would go the only GRN…

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