Paddy Power and Betfair have markets up on the turnout on the White House race, I’m not sure what the level of turnout will be, I can see given the polarising nature of the candidates, and especially with the fervour of Trumpers, with 40% of Trump supporters in Florida telling PPP that they thought Hillary Clinton was a demon turnout will be up from the 2012. Another boost for turnout on both sides should be Trump saying in last night’s debate…
The CNN/ORB instant post debate poll gives it to Clinton by 52% to 39%https://t.co/MYRI389v8l pic.twitter.com/33cNuEO7xK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 20, 2016 YouGov US debate poll also gives it to Clinton by clear margin pic.twitter.com/zLZ05vNfEA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 20, 2016 But was this the zinger of debate season? 'I brought bin Laden to justice while you hosted Celebrity Apprentice' #debatenighthttps://t.co/PufKDReglc pic.twitter.com/OK8GMFGVPG — ITV News (@itvnews) October 20, 2016 Clinton's now 84% post debate, up from 82% pre debate….
Before the start of the third & final debate, Betfair gives Trump a 16% chance of being next President, what will it be in the morning? pic.twitter.com/ci50QuQzRr — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 19, 2016 Trump NEEDS to win tonight (and then for a lot of other things to start going his way):https://t.co/OeWCLyqfFr — 538 politics (@538politics) October 19, 2016 Prediction: By not lighting himself on fire, press will say "Trump wins debate, race 2 close". But battlegrds will stay locked 4…
Surely on these figures the Tories should comfortably hold Witney tomorrow with an increased share of the vote? New @IpsosMORI VI poll Con 47% (+7) Lab 29% (-5) LD7% (+1) UKIP 6% (-3) The Tory lead in emojis. 1 emoji = 1% Con lead. ?????????????????? — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 19, 2016 On the approval ratings that are often better predictors of general elections than voting intention figures Oppo ldr approval, 13 mths (MORI):Foot -48Kinnock -15Smith -4Blair +16Hague -25IDS -26Howard -21Cameron…
Embed from Getty Images The Labour leader’s apparent decision to back Kate Hoey as the chair of the newly-created Commons Brexit select committee is an error, argues Joff Wild Jeremy Corbyn just cannot help himself. After supposedly heartfelt pleas for unity during the Labour party leadership contest, he has followed up on his controversial dismissal of former chief whip Rosie Winterton by seemingly opposing the election of Hillary Benn as chair of the newly created House of Common Brexit…
Embed from Getty Images A year ago I wrote about why Nicola Sturgeon was so chary of committing to a second referendum on independence. With the SNP hegemonic in Scotland but with Yes continuing to lag in the polls, I formed the view that Nicola Sturgeon would probably not seek an unequivocal mandate for a second referendum in the SNP’s manifesto for the 2016 Holyrood elections for fear of losing one. So it proved. What has happened since then? Lots. …
Liberal Democrats backed into 10/1 from 50/1 to win Thursday's Witney by-election after a rush of money… https://t.co/BKFhwPC3TT pic.twitter.com/s3Renglv4P — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) October 18, 2016 Ladbrokes report that betting on the Witney by-election is the highest ever for a by-election. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 18, 2016 This by-election could be pivotal to the type of Brexit Mrs May’s government tries and obtains, and if she decides to hold an early general election. If the Lib Dems do pull…
How the Leavers may have ultimately signed the United Kingdom up for the single currency, the Schengen agreement, an EU Army, and a United States of Europe. Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit. Without the United Kingdom inside the EU stopping and vetoing more federalist ideas nor without our influence advocating…