Clinton punters are getting the jitters with the Electoral College Votes spreads slipping nine on today’s peak

Clinton punters are getting the jitters with the Electoral College Votes spreads slipping nine on today’s peak

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Clinton dropping further on @SportingIndex https://t.co/SlmpdxLl1w … ECV spread market. Latest 311-321, down 9 on peak today — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 7, 2016 Latest state polls via @politicalwire pic.twitter.com/rKbh5D0Kvf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 7, 2016 More final national polls via @politicalwire pic.twitter.com/DBIwzEC5sW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 7, 2016 Latest Betfair Clinton 84%Trump 16% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 7, 2016

DPP considering complaint that the LEAVE campaigns misled voters in breach of election law

DPP considering complaint that the LEAVE campaigns misled voters in breach of election law

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Another controversial Brexit court case in pipeline. CPS considering complaint that leave campaigns misled voters https://t.co/rQqvAT1Glz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 7, 2016 It’s hard to know how to assess the seriousness This afternoon’s report is the first anybody has heard of this and it is difficult to know what will happen if anything. The complaint has been made by Prof Bob Watt, who is an expert in electoral law at the University of Buckingham. The Guardian report notes: “Watt…

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One day to go and Betfair makes Hillary an 83% chance but the markets could be over-reacting

One day to go and Betfair makes Hillary an 83% chance but the markets could be over-reacting

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Why I’ve now taken my Clinton spread betting profits There’s a rule in betting generally that markets have a tendency to over-react to big news. With the White House race we saw Trump price rise sharply to more than 30% when the initial FBI announcement came about opening up the email case a week and a half ago. Overnight we’ve seen the opposite with Trump moving back to the 16-17% range on Betfair as an instant reaction to the no…

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Trump’s price is moving out Betfair because of tonight’s FBI news

Trump’s price is moving out Betfair because of tonight’s FBI news

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FBI finds no evidence of criminality in latest batch of @HillaryClinton emailshttps://t.co/qbXYhlMUia #USElection pic.twitter.com/wihbpnRJt4 — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) November 6, 2016 Trump’s price on Betfair has gone from around 4.9 to over 6 just now. Tonight’s news will come as a relief to Team Clinton. My prediction on the back of tonight’s FBI intervention, if Hillary Clinton wins the Presidency on Tuesday James Comey will be resigning shortly thereafter, lest she appoints him the US Ambassador to the Islamic…

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Why Corbyn and his fans should be hoping Trump wins the White House race

Why Corbyn and his fans should be hoping Trump wins the White House race

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Embed from Getty Images If Trump can win the Presidency then Corbyn can become Prime Minister for the same reasons With the White House race observers on both sides of the Atlantic have tried to draw similarities to politics in the United Kingdom, namely Trump is analogous to Brexit, but perhaps the better analogy is Donald Trump is more akin to Jeremy Corbyn. At first glance the roisterer that is Donald Trump seems like the antithesis of Jeremy Corbyn but…

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Donald Trump might be engaging in some polling denial

Donald Trump might be engaging in some polling denial

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Embed from Getty Images Is the GOP nominee flying blind in the swing states? One of the fun things about the final few days of any election campaign, be it a US Presidential race or a UK general election is seeing where the leaders/candidates are spending the final few days of the campaign as it feels you glean where the battleground states are based on the candidate’s private polling which in turn gives you an indication of the final result….

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The legacy from the coalition that ties Theresa May’s hands on an early general election

The legacy from the coalition that ties Theresa May’s hands on an early general election

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She needs to restore the Royal Prerogative for this area Back in May 2011 whwn Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats were negotiating the Coalition deal one of the key yellow objectives was the fixed Term Parliament Act. Not wanting to get into a situation whereby the Conservatives could ditch the coalition well before the five years and go to the Country the LDs made this a key condition of putting David Cameron in Number 10. Basically there are just two…

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