If Clinton does win the popular vote then it’ll make the polling look a tad less bad

If Clinton does win the popular vote then it’ll make the polling look a tad less bad

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Whatever this is going to go down as a massive polling miss This is becoming a bit of a pattern. A massive election in which the pollsters are seen to have performed badly. We haven’t got the final national vote shares yet but it is likely that Hillary Clinton will have topped Trump so the deviations for many in the RCP list above will be within the margins of error. Unfortunately for her it is state Electoral College Votes that…

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After a dramatic night the PB/Polling Matters team analyse Trump’s extraordinary victory

After a dramatic night the PB/Polling Matters team analyse Trump’s extraordinary victory

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It’s 6.30am on Wednesday 9th November and Donald Trump is heading for victory and will soon become the next president-elect of the United States. Keiran and Leo discuss how it happened, what it means and what comes next. Follow Keiran and Leo at @keiranpedley & @leobarasi Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

It is looking like Clinton’s firewall was as useful a defence as the Maginot Line

It is looking like Clinton’s firewall was as useful a defence as the Maginot Line

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In the last three hours both Clinton and Trump have been both sub 1.10 and above 11 on Betfair pic.twitter.com/EivApSkQp7 — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 9, 2016 CNN: Hillary Clinton has never once set foot in Wisconsin since winning the Democrat nomination #ElectionNight — Jack Blanchard (@Jack_Blanchard_) November 9, 2016 Frank Luntz at 11.43pm In case I wasn't clear enough from my previous tweets: Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States. #ElectionNight — Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November…

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Looks like Donald Trump is E pluribus unum

Looks like Donald Trump is E pluribus unum

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The chart sump the batshit craziness of tonight as Trump becomes the favourite on Betfair. 1am Trump was an 8% chance. £165m matched so far pic.twitter.com/lGWUsmWWMz — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 9, 2016 The NY Times is predicting a Trump victory pic.twitter.com/GUsRCfxxoE — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 9, 2016 The best thing about Trump winning, Brexit might no longer be the most important issue facing the UK — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 9, 2016 FL, NC, and OH are done. It's down to…

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An hour is a long time in politics

An hour is a long time in politics

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Trump now ahead in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, On Betfair he's gone from 11 to 3.4 in less than hour — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 9, 2016 This is going to be a long night. — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 9, 2016 When it comes to American looks like they do want to upset the apple cart TSE

It’s looking good for Hillary at the moment

It’s looking good for Hillary at the moment

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Clinton now ahead in both Florida and North Carolina. If that is sustained, the race to be Next #POTUS is done and dusted. #ElectionNight — Betfair Exchange (@BetfairExchange) November 9, 2016 BREAKING: Clinton will win DE, DC, IL, MD, MA, NJ, RI; Trump will win OK, MS and TN, CNN projects https://t.co/yzr69NrOky #CNNElection pic.twitter.com/orSAxGP5Cz — CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) November 9, 2016 Just a reminder Farage also conceded on June 23 — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 9, 2016 So Rubio takes FL…

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As we await the first results

As we await the first results

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#BREAKING: Early exit poll shows voters are anxious about @realDonaldTrump https://t.co/C6MgWy36Km pic.twitter.com/MCxpW5krZU — POLITICO (@politico) November 8, 2016 Preliminary exit polls: 51% say Trump’s treatment of women bothers them a lot, while 44% say so of Clinton’s emails https://t.co/5giPSNelRv — This Week (@ThisWeekABC) November 8, 2016 The ethnic breakdown in the exit poll might not be as diverse as some Dems wanted #USElection2016 — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) November 8, 2016 President Kerry thanks you for your interest in early exit…

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Six hours or so before we start to get an idea

Six hours or so before we start to get an idea

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Not the best start to #Election2016 day for Donald Trump – being roundly booed on his way to vote (via @AnupKaphle) https://t.co/g8YlsTx0lR — Sporting Index (@sportingindex) November 8, 2016 https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/796035891760418816 Clinton now back to 82% on Betfair. Had slipped earlier to 79& — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2016 BREAKING: Watch Michigan. Working-class turnout is looking much higher than expected. Trump may actually have a chance. #ElectionDay — Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 8, 2016