An intriguing part of PMQs today was May’s response when asked if UKIP leader Nigel Farage will be given a peerage – this starting speculation that he will be. The PM’s response was “such matters are normally never discussed in public”. But there is a strong case for UKIP should have some peers created for it. The party came top in the 2014 Euros with 27% of the vote and most MEPs. At GE2015 it chalked up 4m+ votes but…
Latest @IpsosMORI poll sees drop in CON lead. LAB & LDs the gainersCON 42% -5LAB 33% +4LD 10% +3UKIP 7% +1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2016 As postal voting starts in Richmond Park the yellows back in double figures The LAB and CON changes are both beyond the normal margin of error. It should be noted that the CON share of 47% in the October survey from Ipsos MORI was not matched in other polls and might well…
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined once more by White House Correspondent and US political analyst Jon-Christopher Bua. Jon-Christopher gives his verdict on why Trump won, what went wrong for the Clinton campaign and what happens next with a specific focus on President Trump’s first 100 days. Later in the show Keiran gives his perspective on what happened with the polls and where pundits went wrong. Follow Keiran at @keiranpedley and Jon-Christopher at @JCBua
A guest slot from CycleFree on globalisation In her Mansion House speech, May said this about those who viewed the forces of globalization (“this agenda as the answer to all our ills””) in a different light to those who promoted it – “These people – often those on modest to low incomes living in rich countries like our own – see their jobs being outsourced and wages undercut.” She went on: “When you refuse to accept that globalization in its…
Betfair punters make it a 54% chance that TMay will invoke Article 50 before end June pic.twitter.com/EyaO01qSvb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2016 The big BREXIT news this morning is that it has been made known that the government has drafted a one line bill as a contingency should the Supreme Court uphold the government’s appeal against TMay’s plan to by-pass parliament and use the Royal Prerogative. The bill is apparently worded in such a manner that the Number…
After election night in 2012 Obama was 2% ahead in the popular vote. By January 2013 it reached 3.85% At the 2012 White House Race we had a very special reason on PB to pay close attention to the precise national popular vote numbers in the period after the election. William Hill had offered £1,000 in free bets and the competition was to predict the winning national vote margin to two decimal points. My naive assumption in devising it like…
Picture: Raheem Kassam’s twitter feed. The tectonic plates are moving, so John Prescott once told us. Boy have they moved this year: we have seen the most almighty earthquake storm. What reverberations can we expect for Brexit from the election of Donald Trump? Is it good news or bad news for Britain? For decades Britain has had a strategy of being a bridge between Europe and the US, through its trading and political links to the EU and its military…
And the oldies seemingly less concerned about “unconditional BREXIT” As we move towards the formal start of the UK’s extraction process there’s going to be a lot of polling like this latest from ICM on voters view the current options. This is a very hard thing to poll on because of the tight-lipped approach by Theresa May who won’t reveal anything except to bosses of big Japanese car manufacturers who employ a lot of people here. Her refusal “to give…