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Last night’s by election round up

9/9/2016 TSE Comments 182 Comments

The Lib Dem fightback continues, this time in the finest city in the known universe, Sheffield. Liberal Democrat GAIN Mosborough (Sheffield) from Labour. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 8, 2016 Mosborough (Sheffield) result:LDEM: 45.6% (+31.8)LAB: 34.1% (-9.2)UKIP: 12.4% (-9.8)CON: 6.1% (-7.9)GRN: 1.8% (-1.3) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 8, 2016 Labour HOLD Yeoman Hill (Mansfield). — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 8, 2016 Yeoman Hill (Mansfield) result:LAB: 45.7% (-4.5)MIF: 24.3% (-25.5)UKIP: 17.3% (+17.3)CON: 6.7% (+6.7)IND: 5.9% (+5.9) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects)…

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Vox Populi, Vox Dei, the polling that explains why Mrs May is backing creating more grammar schools

9/9/2016 TSE Comments 411 Comments

Last month YouGov conducted some polling on grammar schools, some of the polling explains why Mrs May has so publicly endorsed the expansion of grammar schools today, it would be appear people view them as good for social mobility. and they would like their children to go to grammar schools. However the polling also found more people in favour of scrapping existing current grammar schools/or not creating any more grammar schools. This is probably based on the studies that show…

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Today we should have been getting the new Prime Minister

9/9/2016 TSE Comments 679 Comments

The picture above sums up the last few months in British politics, the reaction live on television of Sam Coates, Deputy Political Editor of The Times, to Boris Johnson withdrawing from the Tory leadership race. Theresa May’s lack of a mandate could cause her problems. If events had gone to schedule, the result of the Tory leadership contest would have been announced today, Andrea Leadsom’s disastrous ‘mother superior’ interview helped put the kibosh on those plans. But in hindsight Theresa May…

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Tonight’s by elections roundup

8/9/2016 TSE Comments 254 Comments

Tonight's council by-elections: three Labour defences and one UKIP https://t.co/WHPJJTOkMO pic.twitter.com/u2sm5eCUN0 — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 8, 2016

Brace yourselves for the right wing version of Momentum

8/9/2016 TSE Comments 355 Comments

Ukip donor Arron Banks is formally canvassing Leave.EU backers abt starting a new movement. Says "almost 50%" keen.https://t.co/2dfNkOQGw5 — Lucy Fisher (@LOS_Fisher) September 8, 2016 Rumours abound that Nigel Farage (+ key aides) will run Arron Banks' new movement, which will be a "right-wing Momentum" or 38 degrees — Lucy Fisher (@LOS_Fisher) September 8, 2016 A UKIP split could allow Mrs May to go for a soft Brexit without experiencing an electoral cost. Today’s Times are reporting (££) Ukip’s most…

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A couple of general election betting markets

8/9/2016 TSE Comments 271 Comments

Ladbrokes have a market up on if the Tory or Labour share of the vote will rise or fall at the next general election. On the Tory front it is no bet for me simply because whilst the Tory party is doing well at the moment the Brexit negotiations do have the potential to tear asunder the Tory Party like the Corn Laws did a couple of hundred years ago, which could potentially boost UKIP. On the Labour front if…

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Can Smith win? What voters want from BREXIT & the doctors strike: All in latest PB/Polling Matters TV show/podcast

7/9/2016 TSE Comments 219 Comments

Keiran is back after a week off to discuss the latest polling and political developments with Katy Owen and Leo Barasi. As per the new format of the show each guest chooses some polling that they think is interesting and the group discuss what it means. Topics discussed this week include: 1) Leo reacts to Don Brind’s analysis on the last show that Owen Smith can still win and looks at Corybn’s impact on the Labour brand 2) Keiran looks…

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The open field: Picking the next Labour leader

7/9/2016 TSE Comments 435 Comments

Embed from Getty Images Whatever the general public think of Jeremy Corbyn, the bookies must love him. He has been at the centre of one of the wildest betting markets I can recall, the Next Labour Leader market. He has not yet been leader of the Labour party for a year but already in that time we have seen wild oscillations. In that time, at least fifteen candidates have been traded on Betfair at prices of 10/1 or shorter (some…

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