The chart above based on Betfair prices shows Zac Goldsmith holding on well in the betting at least in the Richmond Park by-election which was caused by his resignation as a CON MP in protest at the government’s decision to go ahead with the Heathrow expansion.
The Lib Dems have chucked absolutely everything at this and so far at least punters have not been impressed. If the yellows were able to create a swing as the 19%+ achieved in Witney then they could win.
Zac had a majority of 23k in May last year.
What has been frustrating is that we haven’t had a published poll since the start of the campaign although we know from social media that polling was taking place just over a week ago.
My initial assumption was that the polling, by Populus, was for Lord Ashcroft and that we would have seen it last week. I’m probably wrong on that count.
It is highly unlikely to have been commissioned by one of the competing parties because it would have taken a big slice of the allowable election expenses budget.
My thinking now is that it was paid for by either by Heathrow or the Conservative Party which of course does not have a candidate.
One thing a new published poll would do is give a signal to potential tactical voters who they should support.
If the LDs do get a taste of victory in the final few days I think we’ll see the betting move.