Markets stabilising (for now) giving #SarahOlney a 75% chance of victory. #RichmondPark by-election https://t.co/LidXUB3ynz pic.twitter.com/c5Um8xrhu3 — BetData (@betdatapolitics) December 2, 2016
Richmond Park (Ind defence, elected as Conservative) to Westminster Parliament Result of Parliament at last election (2015): Conservatives 331, Labour 232, Scottish National Party 56, Northern Ireland Parties 18, Liberal Democrats 8, Plaid Cymru 3, Green Party 1, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 12) Result of constituency at last election (2015): Conservative 34,404 (58%), Liberal Democrat 11,389 (19%), Labour 7,296 (12%), Green Party 3,548 (6%), United Kingdom Independence Party 2,464 (4%) EU Referendum Result (Borough): REMAIN 75,396…
Both Theresa May & Corbyn see drops Here they are – the latest YouGov favourability ratings, the polling where the site has chosen who/what should be included. The first time we did this was in August and since then all the UK politicians have seen net drops. Ed Balls, included after his Strictly successes, was not part of the August list. In the summer TMay was still enjoying her honeymoon and had a net +12%. That’s now down to +5%…
Would the Tories stand aside in a seat where UKIP was 2nd behind LAB . Today’s Richmond Park by-election highlights a very new development in British politics where the main issue of the day, BREXIT and its implementation, have become more important than parties. UKIP’s decision to stand aside in Richmond Park as well as the similar move by the Greens on the other side of the argument could mark something very different from what we are used to. At…
The Guardian What would be good result getting very close will be seen as a failure The big news on this final day of campaigning in the Richmond Park by-election is that the Lib Dems are claiming that they are ahead. According to data made available to the Guardian the party’s current projection is: Goldsmith 45.8% LIB Dems 47.2% LAB 6.2% As I’ve argued previously you should treat all data like this as coming from a partisan source and should…
Given the huge importance of Scotland as the UK moves towards BREXIT there’s a new Scotland only YouGov poll – the first since August. These are some of the key points:- New YouGov Scottish poll for Times finds support for independence down to 44% – lower than it was at the Sept 2014 referendum — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2016 TMay sees sharp YouGov ratings drop in Scotland. To the doing job well/badly question she's moved from net PLUS…
The Tories only need a 1.9% margin YouGov’s Anthony Wells who runs UK Polling Report had produced his first analysis of the planned new boundary changes and the outcome is excellent for the Tories and terrible for Labour. The analysis also has the LDs down to just four MPs. I’m just on my way home from the Political Studies Association Awards in London and I’ll do more on this when I’ve had time to look at this in greater detail….
The best analysis & insight on the latest political polling With this latest PB/Polling Matters podcast the development, pioneered by pollster Keiran Pedley, is two years old during which time there have been more than 900k downloads with the million mark not that far off. PB began collaborating with Keiran a few months after the launch and since then this has become a key part in the overall site offerings. On this week’s anniversary edition Keiran is joined by regular…