On top of LAB polling woes first analysis of the new boundaries suggests LAB will need vote lead of 13.5% to get a majority

On top of LAB polling woes first analysis of the new boundaries suggests LAB will need vote lead of 13.5% to get a majority

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The Tories only need a 1.9% margin YouGov’s Anthony Wells who runs UK Polling Report had produced his first analysis of the planned new boundary changes and the outcome is excellent for the Tories and terrible for Labour. The analysis also has the LDs down to just four MPs. I’m just on my way home from the Political Studies Association Awards in London and I’ll do more on this when I’ve had time to look at this in greater detail….

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The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Now two years old and heading for 1m+ downloads

The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Now two years old and heading for 1m+ downloads

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The best analysis & insight on the latest political polling With this latest PB/Polling Matters podcast the development, pioneered by pollster Keiran Pedley, is two years old during which time there have been more than 900k downloads with the million mark not that far off. PB began collaborating with Keiran a few months after the launch and since then this has become a key part in the overall site offerings. On this week’s anniversary edition Keiran is joined by regular…

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Based on the success of other MPs who resigned to fight by-elections Zac’s chances are good

Based on the success of other MPs who resigned to fight by-elections Zac’s chances are good

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It’s more than 30 years since an incumbent failed In much of the discussion on Richmond Park a lot has been made of the 19%+ CON>LD swing that the yellows achieved in Witney which is almost exactly what is required in Thursday’s contest. The only difference is that in this latest by-election the LDs are fighting the incumbent and there is a well recorded incumbency effect. In fact if you look at other by-elections where the incumbent seeks re-election then…

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Nuttall’s first goal as UKIP leader is winning under first past the post

Nuttall’s first goal as UKIP leader is winning under first past the post

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BREXIT means no UKIP MEPs from 2019 Today marks another new chapter in UKIP’s short history with the election by a substantial majority of members of Paul Nuttall as party leader. He’s from the North West and has a very different back story than the public-school former city trader, Nigel Farage, that he replaces. Nuttall said his first objective was to take the battle to Labour which under Corbyn has looked weaker and extremely vulnerable particularly in its heartlands. If…

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Labour’s Migration dilemma

Labour’s Migration dilemma

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Don Brind looks at the challenges Diane Abbott, the Shadow Home Secretary is always worth listening to these days, not necessarily because of the quality of her analysis, but because she tells us what her leader thinks. So when she warns against a move to the right on immigration so that Labour becomes “Ukip-lite” she is undoubtedly reflecting the view of Jeremy Corbyn. In her interview with Guardian political editors Anushka Asthana and Heather Stewart  the Shadow Home secretary undoubtedly reflects…

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Why Populism Trumps the Status Quo

Why Populism Trumps the Status Quo

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A bird’s-eye view, from over the pond by Julian Glassford The political earthquake that the Republican Party’s president-elect has sparked is bigger than the United States of America, and bigger, even, than the ego of “braggadocios” Donald Trump. With tremors still being felt right around the globe, the shock outcome has taken virtually everyone by surprise and left not just the Democratic Party but also donkeys in the media looking rather jolted, dazed, and confused. Meanwhile, the call goes out for…

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