The polls did NOT get BREXIT wrong: Only 41% had REMAIN leads. 59% didn’t

The polls did NOT get BREXIT wrong: Only 41% had REMAIN leads. 59% didn’t

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Is it too much to expect Britain’s PR people to check simple facts? One of the enduring myths from June 23rd was that the polls got it wrong. Some did but most in the official campaign period didn’t as shown in the chart. That esteemed body that allegedly speaks for PR people, the Public Relations and Communications Association (PRCA), has announced it is holding an inquiry into polling specifically referencing GE2015 and the June 23rd referendum. Certainly the former was…

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Taking stock of 2016. What do you think were the biggest events of this extraordinary political year?

Taking stock of 2016. What do you think were the biggest events of this extraordinary political year?

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Take the survey in advance of this week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast Ahead of this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast the team have come up with a short survey so that readers of PB can give their thoughts on the biggest winners, losers, shocks and moments from the past year. Also, perhaps controversially, there is a question in the survey on who people think has been the PB poster of the year. To take part please click here. Results will be read…

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Tonight’s local by-election

Tonight’s local by-election

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Carnoustie and District (SNP defence) on Angus Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 15, Independents 8, Conservatives 4, Labour 1, Liberal Democrat 1 (Scottish National Party majority of 1) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Independents 483, 1,750 (51%) Scottish National Party 582, 1,029 (36%) Labour 274 (6%) Conservatives 271 (6%) Liberal Democrat 41 (1%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 32,747 (55%) LEAVE 26,511 (45%) on a turnout of 68% Candidates duly nominated:…

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The Article 50 Supreme Court case betting moves a notch to the government on the first morning – but still behind

The Article 50 Supreme Court case betting moves a notch to the government on the first morning – but still behind

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Whether you can read anything into this I doubt If you’ve got lots of time on your hands you can watch the case live here. The best comment so far is “OJ Simpson it ain’t”. This is all dry legal argument and will go on like this for most of the week. The verdict’s not expected until the new year. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

As the A50 Supreme Court hearing starts YouGov finds just 46% having a favourable view of senior judges

As the A50 Supreme Court hearing starts YouGov finds just 46% having a favourable view of senior judges

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LEAVE voters give them a net negative Yesterday Ipsos-MORI released its latest trust index and found that 81% saying that judges tell the truth. The fieldwork took place nearly a month ago. In new YouGov polling asking about favourability a very different picture emerges as the chart above shows. This is based on fieldwork carried out in the middle of last week in the days before today’s start of the historic Article 50 Supreme Court hearing. The split between the…

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Saved by der Bellen but what will the Italian referendum bring for the EU?

Saved by der Bellen but what will the Italian referendum bring for the EU?

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Saved by der Bellen? Hofer concedes in the Austrian Presidential election. But what does it mean for the EU?https://t.co/RHFJO7cIcW — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 4, 2016 Another polling failure? A bit harsh when polls are banned for the final fortnight Austria: … and the polls failed again. #bpw16 #polls #Umfragen #vanderBellen pic.twitter.com/CednTGNVNl — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) December 4, 2016 Latest Italian referendum betting   TSE

In the week the Article 50 case is heard before the Supreme Court, the public has more than three times the trust in judges than journalists

In the week the Article 50 case is heard before the Supreme Court, the public has more than three times the trust in judges than journalists

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81% of the public have trust in the enemies of the people, just 24% have trust in journalists @IpsosMORI finds https://t.co/RhdrJI6BYj pic.twitter.com/THZUzyOJ50 — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 4, 2016 Ipsos Mori have published their annual veracity index, with the Article 50 case being heard in the UK’s highest appellate court, it was amusing to contrast the trust in the enemies of the people judges compared to journalists. Only Government ministers, and politicians in general are less trusted than journalists, whilst Estate Agents…

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Defection watch. Betting on Jacob Rees-Mogg to defect to UKIP

Defection watch. Betting on Jacob Rees-Mogg to defect to UKIP

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Embed from Getty Images Will Jacob Rees-Mogg defect to UKIP if Mrs May delivers a non-hard Brexit? Paddy Power have a market up whether some politicians will defect by 2018. On initial glance this looks like a market designed to solely enrich Paddy Power, I did think of backing Douglas Carswell doing a Churchill and defecting back, but given the precedent he has set, he won’t wish to inflict another by election on the voters of Clacton, so that’s that…

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