Looking at Leigh in Gtr Manchester – the seat which Paul Nuttall is planning to contest in the likely by-election

Looking at Leigh in Gtr Manchester – the seat which Paul Nuttall is planning to contest in the likely by-election

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What are the chances for UKIP’s new leader? On May 4th, less than five months away, the MP for Leigh and twice failed LAB leadership contender, Andy Burnham, will be the LAB candidate for the newly created elected mayoralty of Greater Manchester – a position which was very much the brain-child of George Osborne as part of his “Northern Powerhouse” project. Ladbrokes make Burnham the 1/6 favourite to take what would be the most powerful elected mayoralty after London and…

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Never gonna give EU up. The latest Brexit legal challenge, this time to keep Le Royaume-Uni within the single market

Never gonna give EU up. The latest Brexit legal challenge, this time to keep Le Royaume-Uni within the single market

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Picture: Protester outisde the Supreme Court whilst the Article 50 appeal was being heard We’ve known each other for so long but it’s time to say goodbye to UK membership of the single market. Overnight it was reported Theresa May is facing a fresh legal challenge to her Brexit plans as campaigners prepare to petition the High Court for Britain to stay in the single market.  The claimants, including one Remain and one Leave voter, are seeking a judicial review…

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Betting on Labour polling under 20% at the next general election

Betting on Labour polling under 20% at the next general election

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Ladbrokes’ odds imply it is a 9% chance that Labour poll below 20% at the next general election, with Corbyn leading Labour I think the chances are higher Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s share of the vote at the next general election, which could be less than a couple of months away according to press reports this morning. I think the value is backing sub 20% and here’s why (short answer = Jeremy Corbyn.) The YouGov poll earlier…

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Betting on will Boris Johnson still be Foreign Secretary of the 1st of January 2018

Betting on will Boris Johnson still be Foreign Secretary of the 1st of January 2018

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Boris Johnson’s desire to be Prime Minister is why he will stay & try to make a success of being Foreign Secretary while Mrs May cannot sack him without causing problems for herself. William Hill have a market up on whether Boris Johnson will still be Foreign Secretary on the 1st of January 2018. I think despite the events of the summer when Michael Gove’s transformation into the lovechild of Frank Underwood and Niccolò Machiavelli fatally damaged Boris Johnson’s chances…

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The final PB/Polling Matters Podcast of 2016: Looking back at an incredible and unpredictable political year

The final PB/Polling Matters Podcast of 2016: Looking back at an incredible and unpredictable political year

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On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters show Keiran Rob and Leo look back at 2016 and discuss the results from the recent survey of PB/Polling Matters listeners where more than 600 people took part. We discuss what our biggest shock of 2016 was, who the biggest winners and losers were and our defining moments of 2016. We also take some time to read out some comments from listeners and mull over what 2017 might bring. Follow the team…

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Can Labour really sleepwalk another 3 and a half years into disaster?

Can Labour really sleepwalk another 3 and a half years into disaster?

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Their position continues to get worse, gradually Lincolnshire has a habit of producing earthquakes. One in 1185 was powerful enough to badly damage Lincoln Cathedral. A more recent example, centred near Market Rasen at about 1am on 27 Feb 2008, was strong enough to wake people across large parts of the North and Midlands. To go by the reporting, the Sleaford & North Hykeham by-election didn’t generate similar tremors. The reporting is wrong; politics’ tectonic plates continue to move. The…

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After the advocacy, what next for the Article 50 case in the Supreme Court?

After the advocacy, what next for the Article 50 case in the Supreme Court?

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Picture credit: Twitter Alastair Meeks: current odds on the Government winning are value 2016 has had many twists and turns, but from a lawyer’s viewpoint one of the treats has been the unfolding of the Article 50 case.  We have been given the opportunity to observe perhaps the most important case in constitutional law for nearly 200 years. Let’s set to one side the disgraceful behaviour of the press and some extremist politicians in seeking to bludgeon the judiciary into…

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YouGov adds to Labour woes with the worst poll since 2009

YouGov adds to Labour woes with the worst poll since 2009

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Half of GE2015 LAB voters now abandoned the party And barely a third of GE2015 LAB voters rate Corbyn as best PM Given that it is barely three months since Corbyn was re-elected with a huge majority it is hard to see what the party can do. They are stuck with a leader who appears to repel voters and with him in place there appears no obvious way back. This is a story that will just go on with lucky…

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