It isn’t looking so good for the Tories in Wales now with Labour increasing its lead from 2 to 11 in a month The Welsh are such teases as noted before that they look like voting to make the Tories first in Wales but never do and like Opinium earlier on this week the talk of Tories winning Wales in next month’s Senedd is far away as ever although as Roger Awan-Scully points out this is Labour’s worst ever result…
YouGov and Opinium show different things on the VI but are consistent in showing the Welsh rate and prefer Mark Drakeford At the end of last month I wrote a piece looking at the Welsh Senedd elections and pointing out the Welsh are teases just like Mitch McConnell, hinting that they will break the habit of a lifetime but when it comes to it revert to type. In both the 2017 and 2019 general elections weeks before election day YouGov…
Ladbrokes have a fascinating market on the Senedd seat of Cardiff West, looking at the odds above it seems a very easy Labour hold, you’d expect Mark Drakeford, the incumbent First Minister, to hold this seat thanks the excellent rollout of the vaccine he has overseen in Wales which has been seen in the polling. However the most recent poll in Wales by YouGov sees Drakeford losing his seat, which I think that might be more to do with the…
This draft thread header was written in December 2019, but due to pressure of work I never had a chance to send it in. Alterations are shown in italics. In 1918, Couponed candidates took 20 seats, Asquithian Liberals three seats, and Labour or Independent Labour candidates twelve seats in Wales. I mention this not from any particular desire to talk about 1918 in Welsh politics, but because it marks the last occasion to date when Labour failed to top a…
Boris Johnson isn’t the only British politician experiencing a vaccine boost The voting intention section of the YouGov polling of Wales was quite disheartening for Labour. Regular readers of this website are aware that leader ratings and other related supplementaries are often better pointers of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures ergo there is a bit of hope for Labour. As we can see in the second tweet Mark Drakeford’s ratings show he is the first Welsh Prince of…
No permutation looks a natural fit Elections: remember them? For most of the country, they’ve become a distant memory. Aside from a handful of council by-elections in Scotland in the autumn, there’s been nothing for ten months. They are, however, due to return with a vengeance in May with elections for some or all of 149 English councils, plus 13 mayors (including London and all the large combined-authorities), 40 Police & Crime Commissioners, the London Assembly, Scottish Parliament and Welsh…
This looks like being a volatile election in many areas, but nowhere is that truer than in Wales. Five different parties are currently polling in double digits and none is yet polling above 30%. Current polls suggest that the current distribution of constituencies could be upended. Polling, of course, could still change dramatically before the election actually arrives. Historically, Wales has been dominated by Labour. They have won the most seats in every election since December 1918. At the last…
We saw in Scotland tribal loyalty to Labour can be upturned by a nation changing referendum, will Wales be next? The latest polling in Wales shows the Conservatives leading Labour 29% to 25% yet that 4% lead for the Conservatives still sees Labour win more seats than the Conservatives so it is understandable why Labour are the favourites in this market because first past the post and old constituency boundaries are working against the Conservatives in Wales. I think there’s…