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Another video drives the markets Gamblers on both sides of the Atlantic have reacted in a fairly cool manner to the video tape of Osama Bin Laden that was released last night. There were sharp moves to Bush as people took the view that this would remind electors of the ever-present terrorist threat. Then there has been a gradual easing back after some commentators observed that Osama’s “return” was another reminder of a failure of the Bush administration to capture…

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Get your money on while there’s still value George Bush and John Kerry go into the final weekend of the 2004 Campaign with the polls, the betting and the electoral vote prediction on a knife edge. It should be hard to call but we are sticking with our long-standing view that more Americans want to get rid of George Bush than want to keep him. The Democrats are more hyped up even than the religous right (above). They still feel…

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Betfair Bush UPDATED – 0200 BST Friday There’ve been big moves against George Bush on the Betfair betting exchange following revelations on ABC TV that one of its crews had filmed the missing explosives in Iraq nine days after the fall of the country. This starts. The strongest evidence to date indicates that conventional explosives missing from Iraq’s Al-Qaqaa installation disappeared after the United States had taken control of Iraq. Barrels inside the Al-Qaqaa facility appear on videotape shot by…

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Betfair George Bush – UPDATED 8am BST Thursday With the two daily tracking polls showing further movement to Kerry there’s been a big push on the betting markets in his direction. The TIPP daily survey has moved from a 6% Bush lead to a 4% one while Zogby’s tracking number has moved from a 3% Bush lead to a margin of just one point. The chart above shows how the £3m Betfair betting exchange market has moved and the trend…

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Three of the latest five national opinion polls on the White House race have Kerry in the lead according to the new round-up just out. The polls are: Kerry 49 Bush 47 – DCorps Kerry 46 Bush 49 – Zogby Kerry 49 Bush 48 – ABC Kerry 50 Bush 48 – Washington Post Kerry 43 Bush 49 – TIPP The latest electoral vote calculations based on state polls have it Kerry 247 to Bush 286. The Slate.com score-chart has it…

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With three new national polls puting Bush aread, two giving it to Kerry, and one recording a tie the race for the White House is on a knife-edge. The big problem for the Democrats is that one of the polls has an 8% Bush lead while another has it at 5%. The two polls showing Kerry ahead put the margin at 1%. There’s no doubt that Bill Clinton’s entry into the campaign has been a boost for Kerry and this…

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cnn Get 4/1 on a prolonged legal battle With the White House race on a knife-edge you can now bet on whether we’ll have to wait until December 13 or beyond before the result is certified. If the result is as close as predicted then we could have a repetiton of 2000 when pro-longed legal wrangles over Florida finally ended in the Supreme Court (above). Tradesports – the Irish betting exchange that serves the US – is offering punters to…

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