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Category: US Politics

Can Karl Rove survive the CIA leak scandal?

Can Karl Rove survive the CIA leak scandal?

It’s 6/1 against him having to go The Dublin-based international betting exchange, Tradesports, has opened a market on whether George Bush’s closest aide and architect of his election victories, Karl Rove, will announce his resignation on or before 30 September 2005. The current price is about 6/1. The heart of the issue is whether Rove told a journalist that the wife of a prominent critic of the White House’s Iraq polcy was a covert CIA agent and if he did…

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Could this man be the next President of the United States?

Could this man be the next President of the United States?

Barack Obama – 3rd favourite for the Democratic nomination Over the past few months there has been growing speculation that Barack Obama, a Senator from Illinois, might be the Democrat contender for the White House. He came to prominence with a major speech at the party Convention in Boston last July and in recent weeks has become third favourite in the betting behind Hilary Clinton and John Edwards. The best price you can get is 8/1. But a better long-shot…

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What are we to make of the White House Race rigging allegations?

What are we to make of the White House Race rigging allegations?

Is former Labour minister, Michael Meacher on to something? At the risk of appearing a bad loser, a conspiracy theorist or a paranoid we publish extracts from an article by former Labour cabinet minister, Michael Meacher, in this week’s New Statesman. He raises questions that do seem worthy of further investigation about the exit polls on November 2nd in states where there was electronic voting (above) and the rest. Meacher’s claim is that the polls were reasonably accurate in the…

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Iowa Electronic Market – Bush 51.5 Tradesports Bush 54.5

Iowa Electronic Market – Bush 51.5 Tradesports Bush 54.5

UPDATED 7.15 pm GMT Will a new President be sworn in here on Jan 20 2005? With only hours to before polls close on the East coast the Iowa Electronic Exchange still has Kerry and Bush almost level-pegging. The Tradesports exchange has moved sharply to Bush. It’s hard to work out whether this is based on subjective market sentiment or real hard information. The Iowa price, as the Economist pointed out this week, might be slightly artificial because punters are…

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The Bush feeding frenzy goes on

The Bush feeding frenzy goes on

It’s down to Florida and Ohio With the polls showing it’s neck and neck the rush to back Bush has continued on both sides of the Atlantic and he is still the firm favourite that he was this morning. These are the latest polls. Bush 48.7 Kerry 49.5 D Corps Bush 49 Kerry 49 Gallup Bush 51 Kerry 48 Pew Normally with an election so close you would expect this to be reflected in the betting. But not so in…

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The betting markets give it to Bush

The betting markets give it to Bush

But will the Dow and the Redskins have it right? With just a day to go the polls have it as a dead heat but political gamblers on both sides of the Atlantic are putting their money behind George Bush. The “gambling” lead that emerged after the Osama video on Friday has been sustained and looks as though it is getting tighter. Gallup, the pollster which had been recording bigger Bush margins than the others, now has it as a…

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Bringing it all together

Bringing it all together

http://www.econ.umn.edu/~amoro/Research/presprobs.html As we move into the final thirty-six hours can we recommend this site which brings polls, electoral vote predictions and Tradesports prices all together. Everything is moving so fast and Betfair alone has now seen more than £4m of matched bets on the race. Bush 55.5 Kerry 44.5Iowa Political Futures Market Bush 54 Kerry 46 Tradesports exchange Bush 1.71 Kerry 2.38 Betfair exchange Bush 3/5 Kerry 5/4 UK bookmaker best price Polling round-up showing variance of margin on last…

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Are Kerry supporters like UK Tories – too embarrassed to admit it?

Are Kerry supporters like UK Tories – too embarrassed to admit it?

Could the pollsters’ UK failings hold the secret of next Tuesday? For political gamblers this election could not be closer and it’s going to come down to how you read the opinion polls – both state and national. Of the five latest, three have moved to Bush and two have moved to Kerry. Polling round-up showing variance of margin on last poll Bush 50 Kerry 45 Fox Kerry +2 Bush 47 Kerry 48 DCorps Bush +1 Bush 46 Kerry 47…

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