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Category: US Politics

NH 2004: the night that prompted the creation of PBC

NH 2004: the night that prompted the creation of PBC

How PBC had its origins in the last White House Race With all the discussion about the site being dominated by the White House race at the moment it is perhaps worth noting the role that New Hampshire primary in 2004 had on the creation of politicalbetting. In the weeks leading up to Iowa and NH four years ago the kinds of discussion and debate that are now common place on the site were taking place on the Betfair forums….

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The GOP Race: Why my money is on Rudy and Mike

The GOP Race: Why my money is on Rudy and Mike

McCain is simply too old With John McCain looking set for victory in the New Hampshire primary tomorrow night there’s been a big move towards him in the betting and he is now the solid favourite for the Republican nomination. I like McCain, I think he has acquitted himself well, but I can’t but believe that his age, 72 in August, is going to be a big issue which will be magnified if he’s facing Obama who is still in…

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Gallup shows Obama with a 13% NH lead

Gallup shows Obama with a 13% NH lead

McCain has 4% margin in GOP race There have been more big moves on the Democratic candidate markets following a new poll by Gallup for USA TODAY that shows that Hillary Clinton is 13% behind amongst New Hampshire voters who will take part in the first full primary of the 2008 White House Race, in New Hampshire, tomorrow. Obama is at 41% with Clinton on 28% and Edwards on 19%. This is by far the biggest margin that we have…

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Clinton’s price eases after more polls and the debate

Clinton’s price eases after more polls and the debate

Frank Luntz gets the reaction of NH voters Once again it is the fights for the main party nominations in the 2008 White House race that dominate the political betting news. After Thursday night’s Iowa caucuses the next big decision point is New Hampshire where the first proper primaries take place on Tuesday. The Democrat betting has seen big changes over the past 24 hours with Hillary Clinton moving from her odds-on favourite position to second favourite across almost all…

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Obama now favourite on Intrade

Obama now favourite on Intrade

There’s been quite a lot of activity on the US election this morning and the main development has been a switch of favourites for the Democratic nomination on Intrade – the Irish based exchange which is focused very much on the US market. Intrade’s prices are presented on a scale of 0-100. At 1420 the last trades on the market were Obama 51 and Clinton 48. In the UK the Betfair price has tightened considerably on Obama and has eased…

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The Iowa result dominates the UK “broadsheets”

The Iowa result dominates the UK “broadsheets”

The betting markets stick with Hillary – just The UK national dailies that used to be called “the broadsheets” get their first chance this morning to dissect Thursday night’s events in Iowa and they devote page after page to the outcome. If there is any UK political news about it’s hard to find and clearly there’s going to be a high level of interest until well after the New Hampshire outcome on Tuesday night. Whatever the results in the “granite…

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Why my money is staying on our 50/1 long-shot

Why my money is staying on our 50/1 long-shot

It’s going to be hard for Hillary to get back into this It was on May 27th 2005 that I first suggested on the site that the then relatively unknown junior senator from Illinois was a good bet for the 2008 White House Race. At the time you could have got 50/1 on him going all the way and I know that many site visitors did place bets. Those odds have shrunk to 7/2 this morning after his victory in…

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