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Category: US Politics

What odds that McCain won’t be the nominee?

What odds that McCain won’t be the nominee?

What about a “something untoward” wager? Some bookmakers have already paid out on John McCain securing the Republican nomination for the November Presidential election. While that’s very commendable it is important to note that he isn’t the nominee yet and we’ll have to wait until the party convention in September before this is formalised. Betfair, which has seen nearly £1.8m matched on this market, will be holding onto punters’ money (and earning a nice slab of interest) until everything is…

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Is 5/1 Kathleen Sebelius a good V-P bet?

Is 5/1 Kathleen Sebelius a good V-P bet?

Is this the woman who will join Obama on the ticket? Unless there’s a dramatic turnaround in Hillary’s campaign in the next few days then in the middle of next week speculation will turn to who the junior senator from Illinois will choose to be his running mate. There has, of course, been talk that it should be Hillary herself and certainly that would please large sections of the party. But after the campaign that we have seen and her…

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Are Ken’s backer’s plagiarising Obama?

Are Ken’s backer’s plagiarising Obama?

But does talk of “change” work when you are bidding for a third term? With the fight the Democratic nomination hardly being off our screens during 2008 it is perhaps not surprising that Obama’s rhetoric, the phrases he uses, the way he constructs sentences and most of all the words themselves should start to have an influence in UK politics. Just take the following high-blown quote from a statement that a group of Labour supporting academics, writers and artists, have…

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Could McCain be skewered by his own law?

Could McCain be skewered by his own law?

Will Obama be able to outspend him by three or four to one? One statistic that came out of Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary was that in the TV advertising war in the state Barack Obama spent five times as much as the cash-starved Clinton campaign. That’s a massive difference and might have had an impact on the outcome. Looking forward to a McCain-Obama contest in November could the Democratic campaign have a similar overwhelming advantage? And if it does could the…

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What will this pic do for McCain’s White House hopes?

What will this pic do for McCain’s White House hopes?

Does it underline Obama’s “Bush-McCain” rhetoric? In recent weeks we have tended to focus on the battle for the Democratic nomination now that John McCain appears a near certainty to win the GOP race. But the real battle, of course, is the election in November and, at stake, is whether the Republicans can continue to occupy the White House. Whenever Democratic front-runner, Barack Obama, has the chance he uses the term “Bush-McCain” to describe his party’s likely opponent in November….

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Who’ll win the Wisconsin ad war?

Who’ll win the Wisconsin ad war?

Will going negative turn it round for Hillary? One of the great joys of the internet, YouTube and fast video streaming is that we can keep up to date with rapidly moving contests like the current ad war between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Wisconsin. In the latest stage of the fight for the Democratic nomination the Hillary camp has gone negative – the latest TV ad featured above. This is a big gamble. There’s a massive danger that…

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Will Barack’s delegate margin increase tonight?

Will Barack’s delegate margin increase tonight?

Could there be a glimmer of hope in one of the results? The next stage of the seemingly never-ending quest to find the nominees for November’s presidential election moves to Washington DC tonight and to the two neighbouring states – Maryland and Virginia. The success of Mike Huckabee at the weekend has given life to the only serious contender fighting John McCain for the GOP crown. He won two contests on Saturday and there’s a big argument still going on…

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Punters desert Hillary as her troubles mount

Punters desert Hillary as her troubles mount

Confidence erodes after defeats and her campaign manager going The chart shows the changing views of the contenders for the Democratic crown over seven says which has seen “Super Tuesday“, “Significant Saturday” and Sunday’s caucuses in Maine. The betting prices are reflected as implied probabilities and, as can be seen, there’s been a further big drift in Hillary’s price with a corresponding tightening in Obama’s position. On the Betfair exchange the Obama odds are now 0.45/1 with Hillary out at…

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