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Category: US Politics

Huge variation opens up in the polling for November’s US MidTerms

Huge variation opens up in the polling for November’s US MidTerms

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RealClearPolitics The US phone-online survey divide By far the biggest elections that we know are taking place this year are the November US midterms when the whole of the House of Representatives is up for election and about a third of the Senate. The main national picture in the polling is seen in the data in the RealClear Politics data above – the 2018 Generic Congressional Vote where we have seen two almost totally contradictory polls in the past couple…

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With the Alabama polls showing the Farage-backed Moore 3.8% ahead the betting makes him an 83% chance

With the Alabama polls showing the Farage-backed Moore 3.8% ahead the betting makes him an 83% chance

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What Alabama's Senior Senator thinks of the man Farage is campaigning for in Tuesday crucial election https://t.co/GiUQ9ZuUwP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2017 The big political event this week is tomorrow’s special election in Alabama to choose the next senator. This is critically important because currently the split in the Senate is 52 Republican to 48 Democrat. If the controversial, Moore who has been accused of having sex with girls as young a 14,loses then that would become 51-49…

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Moore remains odds-on favourite in Alabama even though the Dems are spending nearly ten times as much on TV ads like these

Moore remains odds-on favourite in Alabama even though the Dems are spending nearly ten times as much on TV ads like these

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Will the big spending Dems campaign produce a sensation? The biggest current political betting markets in the UK are not about British politics at all. They were about the US with Trump’s survival being number one and the Alabama senate race, which takes place next Tuesday, number two. The latter has the advantage of being settled very soon. Punters have only a few days to wait until they know whether their gamble has paid off or not. At the moment…

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Fox News poll: Trump’s Republicans facing big set-backs in 2018 mid-terms

Fox News poll: Trump’s Republicans facing big set-backs in 2018 mid-terms

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Fox News has the Democrats leading by 15 points for 2018 mid-terms Trump's first big electoral test https://t.co/H2f1GtXdbJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2017 By far the biggest elections next year look set be the US midterms in November when Donald Trump will face his first major electoral test. Currently his Republican Party has majorities in both the Senate and the House and his ability to act could be impeded if one or both of these are lost. New…

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New leader ratings in 3 state key to Trump’s 2016 victory have him with big favourability deficits

New leader ratings in 3 state key to Trump’s 2016 victory have him with big favourability deficits

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Those of us who stayed up all night for the White House election last November will recall the huge focus on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – states won by Obama in 2012 which went to the Republican last year. These were won by the tightest of margins down to 1.23% in Wisconsin, 0.64% in Pennsylvania and 0.23% in Michigan and were central to Trump’s shock victory. Now the latest Mairist/NBC News polling in these three states finds that Trump has…

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Trump’s first electoral test sees the Republicans holding on in Kansas with a majority down 20%

Trump’s first electoral test sees the Republicans holding on in Kansas with a majority down 20%

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GOP holds on in Kansas by-election in President Trump's 1st electoral test. Maj down from 27% to 7.2% https://t.co/pSBHzlzf8V pic.twitter.com/nvPaHl9YFv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 12, 2017 The margin down from 27% to 7.2% If the Democrats are to make a dent on the Republican following last year’s presidential election then they are going to need to make 24 gains which would take away the GOP majority in Congress. An opportunity arose last night with a by-election in a Kansas…

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Flynn’s move looks dangerous for Trump and punters make it a 52% chance that the President won’t last the full term

Flynn’s move looks dangerous for Trump and punters make it a 52% chance that the President won’t last the full term

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Breaking: Mike Flynn has offered to be interviewed in probe of Trump team's Russia ties in exchange for immunity https://t.co/8lUo2e92MY — The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) March 30, 2017 Latest @betdatapolitics chart on Trump exit year betting pic.twitter.com/QWfVWo0KgK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2017 Time to bet on the President’s survival? Maybe. Maybe not Until now I have steadfastly ignored the betting on how long Donald Trump will remain in the White House simply because my own personal feelings…

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Main polling headlines from the US and in the UK

Main polling headlines from the US and in the UK

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Trump slumps to historic approval rating low less than a month after becoming President Latest Gallup Trump approval ratings have him at historic low for a President within a month of inauguration pic.twitter.com/XzwKhltUeD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2017 CON lead over LAB up 6% with Opinium Latest @OpiniumResearch GB Wide Westminster VI poll Con 40 (+3) Lab 27 (-3) UKIP 14 (nc) LD 8 (nc) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2017