Or is this still fundamentally a tight race? Two weeks ago, I wrote an article that said “forbidding a landslide (ie a victory in the popular vote of more than 5%), the 2008 map is unlikely to look significantly different to the maps from 2000 and 2004”. I still think that is true, but the last two weeks have seen a marked movement in both the polls and the betting markets towards Barack Obama. Real Clear Politics (fresh from a…
It’s 10/1 that he won’t make it to the general election? On July 29th 2004, just as Peter Mandelson was about to take up his role as EU Commissioner, we suggested here that the 3/1 that was then available on him leaving the role early was worth looking at noting that “looking at the form book this might be a good bet!” So another PB tip comes good and I must check with William Hill to find out how much…
After spousal introductions at conference, could debates be next? One of the novelties of this week in British politics was seeing the Prime Minister introduced at the Labour Party Conference by his wife, Sarah Brown. In a short introductory address, she was chosen to help her husband connect with voters and to put ‘a human face on government’. I think the consensus was that she did very well in an unfamiliar role, and her decision drew plaudits from across the…
Which candidate will be happier with their performance? Given the spectacle presented for our delectation only a couple of hours ago, I cannot have been alone in wishing Senators McCain and Obama had resolved to stay in Washington, rather than attend the first Presidential debate at Ole Miss. In retrospect, I would actually have preferred that the negotiations over the Congressional bailout had been televised instead. The clear consensus on PB.com was that this was a boring affair, peppered with…
Is 2008 going to prove to be just a twist on 2000/2004? Using the highly-addictive site 270-to-win, I’ve recreated the political map that confronted us after Al Gore’s popular vote margin failed to give him the White House in 2000. The result in the Electoral College that year was Bush 271 v 266 Gore, one of the tightest results ever. Re-apportionment of Congressional Districts as a result of the decennial census has changed the number of Electoral College votes each…
After storming forward in the betting following his Palin V-P pick and the convention the move to the Republicans has faltered as the above chart of Betfair prices converted to an implied probability shows. Before the weekend it looked as though the 72 year old Senator would be favourite in all markets. Now only the Dublin-based Intrade has him tighter than evens. The latest Iowa Electronic Market fix was at about Obama 56% to McCain’s 44%. Certainly McCain is still…
Would Hillary have been a better choice for VP? It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Obama-Biden ticket. The stadium finale of the Denver Convention was overshadowed by the historic choice of Governor Sarah Palin by John McCain, the GOP has rediscovered some optimism, and the Republican ticket has taken a lead in the national polls. Much of this is attributed to Palin, who has both energised the Conservative base, and injected some glamour and hope into what…
Should it be a referendum on Obama or on Bush/McCain? In contrast to early expectations the 2008 Presidential election is proving a very tight race. This is a huge surprise given the political atmospherics. George Bush has approval ratings in the low 30s while 80% of Americans feel the country is on the wrong track. Polls show a generic Democrat beating a generic Republican by double digits. Why then is the race so close and what does this mean for…