Will his popularity never be as high as this? So we are here, January the twentieth 2009 when the 44th President of the United State will be sworn in at noon Washington time (5pm GMT) As we have seen in the media build-up this is much more than an American occasion for the eyes and hopes of the world will be on the US capital today and there will be overwhelming goodwill towards the new man. It helps that he…
Skreened What bad news be slipped out as all eyes are on Washington? For a spinner next Tuesday is a mouth-watering prospect. For at noon Washington time, (1700 GMT), the mega news story in the world will be the inauguration of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. His speech, surely, will dominate the airwaves for at least twenty-four hours. And the great thing is that the “news managers” have known about this for months and will…
Will Obama’s former rival become part of his team? There are reports in the US media this evening that Hillary Clinton might be offered a key role in Barack Obama’s government which formally takes power on January 20th 2009. According to CNN the two former rivals met in Chicago at Obama’a request and the speculation is that she might be being offered the role of Secretary of State. The suggestion is that such an appointment would allow him to focus…
Remember the most famous front page in political journalism As we contemplate how certain we are about an Obama victory next Tuesday perhaps we ought to remind ourselves of the dangers of jumping the gun. The picture is, of course, the famous one of Harry Truman on the morning in 1948 when he was re-elected president, holding up a copy of that day’s Chicago paper with the headline completely wrong. Truman won an emphatic victory of 303-189 in electoral college…
Is the environment only something we care about when we are prosperous? The chart above is from the latest Ipsos-MORI and shows responses to the firm’s unprompted “What do you thing are the main/important issues facing Britain today” which they have been asking in exactly the same way for more than two decades. As can be expected the current top topic raised by respondents was the economy. But just look at the way “green” concerns have been declining. When your…
Where’s the value in the Senatorial betting markets? With most eyes on the Presidential election, and much of the value squeezed out of the White House political betting markets, it is easy to forget the glut of interesting Congressional and Gubernatorial races that offer to the political punter the opportunity to find a little extra value. House races are strange beasts, and the sheer number of races (435, of which maybe 150 are truly competitive) means that betting on individual…
Was this political manoevering or simply very bad betting? One of the best sources for anyone interested in US politics, Congressional Quarterly, is running with a story that a single, unnamed punter has been responsible for the pricing anomaly on InTrade that has seen John McCain’s stock hold a higher price than on Betfair, or the Iowa Electronic Markets. Apparently, the ‘institutional’ investor purchased hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of McCain contracts, at inferior prices than were available elsewhere,…
Will British voters learn from the lessons of a new American Presidency? In a fantastic post over at the Spectator Magazine’s Coffee House blog, James Forsyth asks whether an expected Obama presidency will either prove or disprove Gordon Brown’s claim that “this is no time for a novice” He writes “If by the time of the next general election, which will probably be about 16 months into an Obama presidency, Obama is seen as a success, the line will lose…