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Category: UKIP

Do these numbers explode the Telegraph’s UKIP myth?

Do these numbers explode the Telegraph’s UKIP myth?

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Correlations between changes in vote share CON LAB LD NAT UKIP LAB -0.29 LD -0.27 –0.52 NAT –0.38 0.19 -0.56 UKIP 0.05 -0.13 0.07 0.03 BNP -0.01 -0.27 0.04 -0.40 -0.13 Did the anti-EU party hurt Labour most? A couple of weeks ago the Telegraph writer, Gerald Warner, claiming the psephological science was on his side, asserted that UKIP had cost the Tories 21 seats on May 6th. He wrote:”..Detailed examination of the election results reveals that UKIP deprived the…

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What does Dave do about Nick’s referendum move?

What does Dave do about Nick’s referendum move?

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Could this be a trap for the Tory leader? As we get closer to each of the debates all three participants have been positioning themselves on issues that might come up. Thanks to David Blackburn on the Speccie CoffeeHouse blog for highlighting this one – Nick Clegg’s offer yesterday to hold a full “in or out” referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU. This, of course, has been one of the key demands of UKIP – and could supporters of…

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Will this just get people not to vote?

Will this just get people not to vote?

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Is Dale right – “this is the smartest poster yet”? Iain Dale has blogged on this suggesting that it’s smart because “it’s what most voters think”. I think he’s wrong and that the poster is a mistake. Are UKIP trying to put not voting at all on the same level as voting UKIP? UKIP have a good message on the EU – why not stick with it? And I’m not so sure whether using what many consider to be a…

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Should you take the 100/1 shot in Buckingham?

Should you take the 100/1 shot in Buckingham?

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Could it be Stevens not Farage who floors Bercow? One of the great side-shows in the election is the scrap in Buckingham where the speaker, John Bercow, is seeking to defend his seat. The main parties are following the convention of not standing against him but there are one or two tricky opponents who might cause him problems. The efforts by ex-UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, have been well documented and he must be in with a chance. But there’s another…

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Could the Purples come to the aid of the Blues?

Could the Purples come to the aid of the Blues?

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Will the big tactical move be from UKIP backers? All the talk about tactical voting seems to be about the Lib Dems with polling evidence starting to suggest that they split at least 3-2 in favour of a victory for Brown’s Labour. But are we wrong to confine our thinking about tactical voting to just Nick Clegg’s party. Is the biggest source of potential movers from “others” – notably GREEN/BNP/UKIP which between them have been getting in excess of 10…

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What happens if there is no GREEN/UKIP/BNP standing?

What happens if there is no GREEN/UKIP/BNP standing?

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How would the vote split? Lots of talk today about how many candidates the “others” – GREEN/UKIP/BNP – will actually have standing in the election. UKIP looks as though it will have in excess of 500 but the other two parties are probably going to fall short by quite a distance. With this segment running quite high in a number of polls the question is how would this go if potential voters have not got someone to support in their…

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Will “others”, UKIP/GRN/BNP, really get a boost from this?

Will “others”, UKIP/GRN/BNP, really get a boost from this?

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Or will they be squeezed out in the Dave-Gord encounter? The general view ahead of the June 2009 Euro elections was that the parties that would gain most from the expenses scandal, which dominated the headlines for the weeks beforehand, would be UKIP, the Greens and the BNP. And so it was. UKIP easily beat Labour for second place in the national vote, the Greens had a good election while the BNP secured two seats at the EU parliament for…

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Has ICM adopted PB’s turnout weighting plan?

Has ICM adopted PB’s turnout weighting plan?

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Is this putting the squeeze on the “others”? Well done to Anthony Wells as UKPollingReport for spotting this but ICM seem to have introduced a significant methodology change in this week’s Guardian poll which looks as though it will reduce the shares it reports for UKIP/BNP/GRN. For the firm has introduced a change that I’ve been pressing for since 2007 – that greater weight be given when assessing likelihood to vote to those respondents who have a record of voting….

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