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The Sept/Oct 2014 Sutton Coldfield by-election: Where Diane James becomes Ukip’s first elected MP?

The Sept/Oct 2014 Sutton Coldfield by-election: Where Diane James becomes Ukip’s first elected MP?

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Andrew Mitchell’s Sutton Coldfield seat – how the votes split at #GE2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2013 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2013 What we need is a contest in a CON stronghold Of all the by-eletions in this parliament what we haven’t seen is one in a rock solid CON stronghold where LAB and the LDs are nowhere. How would Ukip perform in that environment and how would the blue team respond? Well we…

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Are we entering the twilight of the leadership of Dave

Are we entering the twilight of the leadership of Dave

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    Are we entering the twilight of the leadership of Davewww7.politicalbetting.com/?p=56969 twitter.com/TSEofPB/status… — TSEPB (@TSEofPB) February 28, 2013 Michael Crick, the other day tweeted From talking to more voters today I increasingly think UKIP could pull of a surprise victory in Eastleigh.They will certainly do very well — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) February 26, 2013 Whilst the Lib Dems were said to be Lib Dems “feeling good” about Eastleigh but admit going to be “blooming close”. Senior source says they…

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The big surprise next Thursday will be the size of the Ukip vote

The big surprise next Thursday will be the size of the Ukip vote

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Big split in betting opinion on Ukip’s chances of winning #Eastleigh. PaddyPower have it at 25/1 – Ladbrokes now 12/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2013 Farage’s party will do better than we think All the reports I am getting from Eastleigh suggest that Ukip is going to do well in the by-election next Thursday and those who took my advice on Monday to back them in the LAB vote match markets are likely to end up as…

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Is this further proof of why UKIP are not capable of winning Parliamentary seats

Is this further proof of why UKIP are not capable of winning Parliamentary seats

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According to the Telegraph, UKIP has sent out the above leaflet. Saying Eastleigh deserves better. It certainly does. The leaflets have been put through doors in Colden Common, which is not part of the Eastleigh constituency. Given the gimmicks UKIP have used in the past, it isn’t surprising they finished third in a two-horse race in Buckingham. What makes this mistake in Eastleigh even more alarming for UKIP was that Mike Smithson was told last week. #Eastleigh, I’m told, is…

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Could the party of Nigel Farage really end up winning more #Eastleigh votes than Labour?

Could the party of Nigel Farage really end up winning more #Eastleigh votes than Labour?

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Nigel Farage in Eastleigh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2013 There were reports last night of other Eastleigh polls in the field that had the party order at LD, CON, Ukip with LAB in fourth place. Quite what the veractity of that information is I don’t know and in by-elections like this we have to treat reports of unpublished surveys with extreme scepticism. But what has become apparent is that in terms of planning and organisation there are…

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Farage is going to find it hard NOT being the Ukip candidate in #Eastleigh

Farage is going to find it hard NOT being the Ukip candidate in #Eastleigh

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This surely must be one for the leader to lead On the face of it the Eastleigh by-election is ideal for Nigel Farage and Ukip. His party, one CCHQ official told me this afternoon, is probably better organised there than anywhere else in the UK. Back in May 2012 Ukip fielded candidates in every single seat in the council elections and achieved a vote share in double figures. On top of that there’s the local connection. Farage was a Ukip…

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Why Ukip might be a good bet to win more votes than the Tories in #EU2014

Why Ukip might be a good bet to win more votes than the Tories in #EU2014

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Ladbrokes make it evens that Ukip will outpoll CON in #EU2014.Might be a good bet. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 28, 2013 Ladbrokes have a match bet market on which of CON and Ukip will do better in terms of votes at #EU2014 which take place in eighteen months time. Note that with the bet where LAB finish is irrelevant, It’s a straight fight between the blues and purples with, for the moment, CON being the odds-on favourite…

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In a way Farage has won but his party could lose support

In a way Farage has won but his party could lose support

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Where does today’s Dave speech leave Farage? What about Ukip’s polling position? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2013 What happens to Ukip post-Dave speech? There can be little doubt that the rise of Ukip in the polls has played a big part in Dave’s referendum decision. The blue hope must be that some of those CON 2010 voters who’ve shifted will start to return. If that happens then Ukip could see a decline in its poll ratings. Is…

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