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Category: UKIP

Harry Hayfield: The United Kingdom Independence Party are not as United Kingdom as their name suggests

Harry Hayfield: The United Kingdom Independence Party are not as United Kingdom as their name suggests

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This article was started on the Friday after the local elections (May 10th 2013) and was prompted by a discussion on the BBC Northern Ireland edition of the Sunday Politics the previous weekend about the chances of a UKIP breakthrough in the Assembly. UKIP (the United Kingdom Independence Party) appear to have broken through into the political mainstream following the local elections last week and yet at the same time one thing appears clear, they are not as United Kingdom…

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Comres: European Election poll

Comres: European Election poll

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Comres has conducted a poll for Open Europe on the European elections next year, the changes are from the European elections in 2009, The fieldwork was from the 22nd until the 24th of May, and 2003 adults were surveyed UKIP will be delighted with this poll, the Tories will be alarmed to be polling at 21% but delighted they’re only 2% behind Labour. The Lib Dems are polling higher than they did in 2009. The other salient parts (from the…

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Is Ed Miliband Cameron’s secret antidote to the UKIP surge?

Is Ed Miliband Cameron’s secret antidote to the UKIP surge?

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New PB thread, Is Ed Miliband Cameron’s secret antidote to the UKIP surgewww7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch… twitter.com/TSEofPB/status… — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) May 26, 2013 A little over a week ago, there was a report in The Times (££) talking about UKIP’s future fundraising plans. In a significant re-casting of its pitch to would-be supporters, the party is asking voters to “lend” their support for next year’s European elections but to give no further commitment. To achieve this, they will set up a special bank account, the…

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The UKIP surge continues. How are the purples going to do at GE2015?

The UKIP surge continues. How are the purples going to do at GE2015?

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Your chance to predict to vote share At GE2010 UKIP’s national vote share was 3.1%. What will it be at the next general election? 0-5% 5-8% 8-11% 11-14% 14-17% 17-20% 20-23% 23-100%      How many seats will they win? How many seats will UKIP win at the next general election? Zero 1 2-5 6-10 More than 10     

After last night’s Survation poll with Ukip just 2pc behind the Tories today’s YouGov has the gap at 17pc

After last night’s Survation poll with Ukip just 2pc behind the Tories today’s YouGov has the gap at 17pc

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So why the huge difference? The first YouGov poll to be carried out after the “loongate” story blew up has a dramatically different picture than Survation last night. UKIP remains on the 14% share recorded in the Sunday Times poll while the Tories edge up 2% to 31% with LAB falling back a point. The main differences between Survation and YouGov are that the former takes likelihood to vote into account and prompts for Ukip in its main voting question….

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The generational splits that are working brilliantly for Nigel Farage

The generational splits that are working brilliantly for Nigel Farage

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This has be said many times before but it is worth emphasising – how UKIP is most popular amongst the older age groups – the segment of the electorate that is much more likely to vote. The chart, based on this month’s Ipsos-MORI data, shows the proportion saying they are certain to vote in each age segment and the proportion saying they would vote UKIP if there was a general election tomorrow. It has been observed in past elections that…

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YouGov appears to have changed the way it deals with Ukip and is now prompting for the party

YouGov appears to have changed the way it deals with Ukip and is now prompting for the party

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Bigger YouGov shares for Ukip coming up?They appear to now include Ukip in first prompt. See this from @redukipper twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013 If the firm’s critics are correct then expect bigger Ukip shares Above is a screen shot of YouGov polling questionnaire which shows that Ukip is now included in the prompt on the main voting intention question. Until now those polled wanting to say Ukip have had to click the “some other party” option…

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Why I am betting that the Conservatives have a better than 9pc chance of winning most votes at the 2014 Euros

Why I am betting that the Conservatives have a better than 9pc chance of winning most votes at the 2014 Euros

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Last week in a thread on which party would come out with most votes at next year’s Euro elections Richard Nabavi suggested that the best value bet was the 10/1 which is still available from Ladbrokes on the Conservatives. His reasoning was that these are a set of elections where the Tories have traditionally done well irrespective of how they’ve been performing in national Westminster polls. Even, as the interactive chart above shows, in the dark days for the party…

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