Browsed by
Category: UKIP

Remember the 2009 Euro elections when ICM was the pollster most out with UKIP

Remember the 2009 Euro elections when ICM was the pollster most out with UKIP

Comments 0 Comment

After last night’s ICM poll which has UKIP down to 7% with the CON and LAB level-pegging it is inevitable that people will focus on the firm particularly its record with Farage’s party. There’s little doubt at the moment that the main differences between the pollsters is what they are recording for UKIP. If they find Farage’s party getting a high share then the Tories are doing worse. The chart above shows the UKIP shares in the final polls before…

Read More Read More

If current polling levels continue then UKIP must be in with a good chance of getting MPs

If current polling levels continue then UKIP must be in with a good chance of getting MPs

Comments 0 Comment

Courtesy of @MSmithsonPB this table from Electoral Calculus shows projections for UKIP seats at different levels pic.twitter.com/H2B22Nl0vY — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 14, 2013 Is it worth a punt? The significant feature of the weekend polling was that three of the 4 firms reporting had such large shares for UKIP – not much down on what we were seeing in the immediate aftermath of the party’s spectacular local elections performance in May ComRes online had them at 18%, Opinium at…

Read More Read More

The trends for Labour’s lead and UKIP’s share in Sunday Times YouGov polls

The trends for Labour’s lead and UKIP’s share in Sunday Times YouGov polls

Comments 0 Comment

Today’s key YouGov poll details The latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has LAB lead down to 6% CON 33% LAB 39% LD 11% UKIP 12% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2013 All 3 leaders take small hit in YouGov leader ratings Dave minus 20 from -17 EdM minus 34 from -31 Clegg minus 51 from -49 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2013 29% tell YouGov that EdM has been too close to the Unions 13% too distant 22% about right. 36% say don't know — Mike…

Read More Read More

Final vote tally from last month’s locals shows UKIP in second place in seats contested

Final vote tally from last month’s locals shows UKIP in second place in seats contested

Comments 0 Comment

Thanks to Andy JS who has done a brilliant job collecting and recording the data from each of the 2,208 seats that were fought on May 2nd. In addition to the numbers I’ve included as an option on the chart’s dropdown the shares from the ComRes local elections poll. Compared with the overall vote totals this overstated LAB and UKIP but understated CON and the LDs. These figures differ considerably from the notional national vote extrapolations put out by the…

Read More Read More

Revised seat projection approach from Martin Baxter points to UKIP starting to win Commons seats on a 16% share not 23%

Revised seat projection approach from Martin Baxter points to UKIP starting to win Commons seats on a 16% share not 23%

Comments 0 Comment

Electoral Calculus's Martin Baxter now projecting that UKIP could start winning seats on 16% http://t.co/Bpu0246QfP pic.twitter.com/svyj94JJOA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 26, 2013 Time to look at UKIP seat betting? As has been highlighted a fair bit recently UKIP have a real challenge converting the substantial poll shares now being reported into seats because of the way the first past the post system operates with the smaller parties. Now Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus has published a revised approach to…

Read More Read More

UKIP drop 6 pts in latest ICM phone poll

UKIP drop 6 pts in latest ICM phone poll

Comments 0 Comment

Are we heading to a new normality? The June telephone poll from ICM, one of the three remaining regular surveys that carry out their fieldwork in this way, is out and sees a sharp decline for UKIP after reaching 18% last month. That poll took place while the Farage’s party was enjoying the mass of coverage following its big success in the May 2nd local elections and the good second place in the South Shields by-election. This month the limelight…

Read More Read More

It’s time for the rest of the polling industry to follow Survation and treat UKIP on an equal basis

It’s time for the rest of the polling industry to follow Survation and treat UKIP on an equal basis

Comments 0 Comment

Farage’s force is no longer “some other party” Last year the newbie pollster which is now picking up an awful lot of business, Survation, caused controversy in the industry by including UKIP in its main voting intention prompt. The result was that Survation began showing shares for UKIP which were considerably larger than many other firms. The practice for online pollsters had been to list CON, LAB, and LD on the first screen of the voting intention questioning with an…

Read More Read More