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Category: UKIP

The Sykes donation puts up the stakes for Farage at EURO2014 – any less than 1st place will be a failure

The Sykes donation puts up the stakes for Farage at EURO2014 – any less than 1st place will be a failure

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With the cash & all the coverage UKIP have to succeed For a party that doesn’t have a single MP it’s quite remarkable that UKIP goes into next May’s EU elections as the evens betting favourite to come out top on votes. The Sykes donation on top of the extraordinary level of coverage for Farage, have simply added to the expectations and the party simply has to come top. Receiving a few million pounds from a Yorkshire tycoon has its…

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Marf on the economy and the morning’s polling news

Marf on the economy and the morning’s polling news

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Latest YouGov sees UKIP up at 13% again Today's YouGov poll for the Sun sees LAB lead down to 8% CON 31 LAB 39 LD 9 UKIP 13 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 14, 2013 Farage’s party seems to poll within a range of 10-13% in the daily YouGov surveys and this morning’s figure is at the top of that range. On a bare uniform national swing this…

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GE2015 could see UKIP winning more votes than the LDs yet not getting a single MP

GE2015 could see UKIP winning more votes than the LDs yet not getting a single MP

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The outcome could appear an abomination In the May 2013 local elections UKIP chalked up nearly twice as many votes as the Lib Dems yet won barely half the number of seats – a fact that attracted very little comment at the time. Given current polling and what is happening in local by-elections Farage’s party is not going away. It is continuing to poll in double figures even though only one pollster prompts for the party and several have weighting…

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Suddenly people are wondering whether Farage is losing it

Suddenly people are wondering whether Farage is losing it

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Maybe UKIP’s not a certainty to win most votes at EP2014 after all There’ve been several pieces today about Nigel Farage’s performance on Question Time last night held in what became a UKIP stronghold at the May local elections, Boston in Linconshire. It might just have been the audience or he was having an off night but he came over badly as seen in the clip above. Under the heading “Is Nigel Farage losing his touch?” Sebastian Payne on the…

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The CON European leader is in UKIP’s sights

The CON European leader is in UKIP’s sights

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Henry G Manson on the battle in the North East Many expect UKIP to do well in next year’s European elections. The bookmakers have the purple party at 7/4 to get the most MEPs, with Labour the 4/5 favourite and Conservatives on 4/1. The purple party can look forward to plenty of media coverage and the recent conference embarrassments involving Godfrey Bloom don’t appear to have had much wider impact with their support. One symbolic moment of these particular European…

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Populus and Survation had almost the same raw figures for UKIP support yet their headline numbers were very different

Populus and Survation had almost the same raw figures for UKIP support yet their headline numbers were very different

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The impact of different polling methodologies Both Populus and Survation operate in a very similar manner. Both do their fieldwork online, both weight for likely turnout, and both apply a formula to ensure that their samples are politically balanced. Survation uses past voting weighting comparing what respondents said they did at GE2015 and with the actual result. Populus asks “which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?” and compares back to the 2010 Social…

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Looking at the 2010 CON voters whom Cameron has to win back back

Looking at the 2010 CON voters whom Cameron has to win back back

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The other big battle of GE2015 There are two groups voters who will decide GE2015 – those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 who now say they are voting LAB, and those who voted for Cameron’s Conservatives who now tell pollsters that they will vote UKIP. We have focused a fair bit on the former but less so on the latter. The big blue hope is that that when faced with the prospect of a Miliband-led LAB government they will…

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I’m starting to think that UKIP could surprise us at GE2015

I’m starting to think that UKIP could surprise us at GE2015

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Even out of the spotlight their polling remains resilient Over the past month UKIP has been out of the news for all but about two days yet as the chart above shows this has hardly impacted on its YouGov poll numbers. All but one of the other online pollsters have them doing even better even though only one of them, Survation, includes the party in its main prompt. To signify UKIP with YouGov, for instance, you have to first tick…

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