In no way are the purples as big a threat to LAB as CON There’s consistent talk at the moment of UKIP being a bigger threat to LAB than CON. This is a point that Mr Farage wants to hammer home on virtually every occasion. Yet quite simply this is not supported by the data. Just look at the chart above based on data from the month’s biggest poll, the Populus/FT March aggregate with a sample of 16,424 Because of…
One thing we should know: the debates will happen In one sense, David Cameron and Ed Miliband missed out on an opportunity by declining the invites to what turned into the Clegg-Farage Eurodebates. Not being there will not have helped either of their parties and Cameron in particular could have occupied the popular sceptical middle ground between Clegg’s uncritical Europhilia and Farage’s withdrawalism. However, that opportunity has to be set against the cost, which would have been establishing a precedent…
It's going to be much harder keeping Farage out of the GE2015 debates pic.twitter.com/FamJJU9Muh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2014 Unless Dave agrees he’ll be accused of running scared The big consequence of last night’s widely perceived victory by Farage in the debate with Clegg is that it’s going to be a lot harder keeping the UKIP leader out of the leaders’ debates at GE2015. Quite simply Clegg is now not in a position to object while Ed Miliband has…
The YouGov poll on who won the debate is out. BREAKING: FARAGE WINS. Nigel beats Nick 57-36 – @YouGov/Sun poll: http://t.co/HFiBvZJLiG pic.twitter.com/iLXcPej6D5 — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) March 26, 2014 Who won the debate between Farage & Clegg. Con voters: Farage 69%, Clegg 27%, Unsure 4%. Lab voters Clegg 51%, Farage 42%, Unsure 5% — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) March 26, 2014 Who won the debate between Farage & Clegg. LD voters: Clegg 77%, Farage 20%, Unsure 3% UKIP voters:…
Corporeal on UKIP It’s reasonably common, in these cynical times that we live in, to hear someone dismissively remark that politicians are mainly interested in power. It’s a comment that is both often true and also the basic point of politicians. Politics itself is essentially the exercise of power in society in all its various shapes and forms and the proper use of that power is what politicians are fundamentally contesting. It is less a question of how the world…
During today’s interview with Andrew Neil on the Sunday Politics, the issue of where Nigel Farage wants to stand at the next election cropped up again and for the first time he gave an answer “I want to fight a marginal” he declared. Now, there has been a lot of discussion in the past about what constitutes a marginal (with experts ranging in opinions from a 5% lead to a 20% lead), but my own personal thoughts are that a…
This should shake up the betting markets Note that ComRes applied a different certainty to vote filter compared with normal Westminster polling. Only those certain to vote are included and my guess is that this is a major factor that has put UKIP at the top. As I write I haven’t seen the detail but my guess is that demographic groups likely to support UKIP are those who are most likely to turnout. Note. The change figures on the above…
Much greater scrutiny Expect to see more attacks on UKIP like this in the 11 weeks remaining pic.twitter.com/4AyroUsc1S — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2014 The purples still waiting for their Paul Sykes donation Observer http://t.co/utBXQ83odK has most interesting UKIP #EP2014 campaign story Top donor not handed money over yet pic.twitter.com/l6gFN3AbZk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2014