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Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got closest with ICM in second place

Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got closest with ICM in second place

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With so much variation in the UKIP share in recent polls it is perhaps worth recalling that the firm that got it most right the last time they were tested, the May 22nd Euros, was YouGov. The figures are in the chart above and it is interesting that YouGov and ICM, the ones that did best on May 22nd, are continuing to show UKIP with smaller shares for the general election compared with other pollsters. Later this morning Lord Ashcroft…

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A month after the local and Euro elections there is no sign that UKIP support is anything but solid

A month after the local and Euro elections there is no sign that UKIP support is anything but solid

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Ashcroft National Poll, 20-22 June: CON 28%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 17%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) June 23, 2014 So far predictions of its demise have been premature A very large number of people predicted after the May 22nd elections that as we got closer to next May’s general election then UKIP’s totals would start to fade away. Well it is now a month after we were digesting those results and the picture is…

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The big challenge now for UKIP: Securing enough votes in single seats well in excess of anything its achieved before

The big challenge now for UKIP: Securing enough votes in single seats well in excess of anything its achieved before

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Getting even a single MP might be beyond the purples There’s been lots of betting interest since EP14 and Newark over what UKIP will do at GE15. Will this be the election when the party that won the Euros actually gets it first MP or MPs? We’ve been over this many times but it is hard ask for Farage’s team to get enough votes in at least one of the 650 seats that puts them over the line. As we…

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Round-up of the latest numbers and charts from this exceptional political period

Round-up of the latest numbers and charts from this exceptional political period

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It’s ex-Tories over 65s that have driven the surge Interesting analysis from @IpsosMORI on the source of UKIP voters by previous allegiance & age. 18% ex-CON 65+ pic.twitter.com/foOc1Jfk8T — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 6, 2014 Eastleigh’s 27.8% still the best-ever UKIP Westminster performance Women voters: The big challenge facing Farage Attendees at this Farage/Helmer meeting last Saturday highlighted UKIP challenge. Very few women. pic.twitter.com/H6VaZb4OrR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 6, 2014 Mike Smithson

Why People Voted UKIP

Why People Voted UKIP

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As part of the poll conducted for UKIP donor Paul Sykes, ComRes asked How important was each of the following as a possible reason for your decision to vote UKIP at the European elections on Thursday? (Only those that replied 10/10 are shown – 10 being very important) Immigration, EU, Farage, Gay marriage? This chart shows the most important reasons people voted for UKIP at the Euros pic.twitter.com/hry389fUr4 — Tom Mludzinski (@tom_ComRes) June 2, 2014 As we can see, Tighter…

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If the pollsters are understating UKIP like at previous by-elections then Newark is absolutely neck and neck

If the pollsters are understating UKIP like at previous by-elections then Newark is absolutely neck and neck

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Traditional methodology might not be applicable Tomorrow afternoon Lord Ashcroft is publishing his poll for Thursday’s Newark by-election which will be the only the second survey that’s been carried in what’s turning out to be a humdinger of a fight between UKIP and the Tories. Both have got historical baggage that a win could help them shed. For you have to go back to William Hague’s victory in the N Yorks seat of Richmond in 1989 to find the last…

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This ComRes poll suggests UKIP will not be fading at the General Election

This ComRes poll suggests UKIP will not be fading at the General Election

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TELEGRAPH: UKIP vote no flash in the pan #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/L1bqPLSZeD — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) May 30, 2014 ComRes have polled on behalf of UKIP donor Paul Sykes asking what UKIP voters in the Euros would do at the next General Election, the telegraph reports that 37 per cent of UKIP voters said that they were “certain” to support the party at the general election. Another 49 per cent said that they were “likely” to do so, while 14 per…

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