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Category: UKIP

Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP

Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP

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Not the start Cameron wanted before the Tory conference Mark Reckless Tory MP defects to UKIP — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 27, 2014 UPDATE Mark Reckless follows the Carswell principle and forces a by-election in his seat. — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 27, 2014 UPDATE II – VIDEO OF RECKLESS ANNOUNCING HIS DEFECTION UPDATE III – constituency phone polling by Survation in Rotherham, Boston & Skegness and North Thanet New constituency phone polling by @Survation in Rotherham, Boston…

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The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

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The devastating detail from the @Survation -MoS Clacton poll. Where the UKIP is coming from. http://t.co/vnARzqe6NN pic.twitter.com/y8OASfgEud — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 31, 2014 The constituency, though, is a one-off In all the time I have been following and analysing polls there has never been anything as sensational as the Survation Clacton poll for the Mail on Sunday published overnight. The figures are extraordinary and point to an overwhelming victory for Douglas Carswell in his new colours. The thing we…

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David Herdson on what Carswell’s defection could mean for 2015

David Herdson on what Carswell’s defection could mean for 2015

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A by-election victory could secure a TV debate place for Farage The defection of one MP or another towards the end of a parliament is nothing particularly unusual.  The decision of one to resign and re-contest his or her seat is.  Were it not for the vote of even greater significance taking place in Scotland next month, the Clacton by-election could have been the seminal political moment of the parliament.  Depending on the two results, it still might be. A…

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UKIP looks to the seaside for that elusive first past the post Westminster breakthough

UKIP looks to the seaside for that elusive first past the post Westminster breakthough

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CON-held seats are the primary focus Whenever kippers talk about their progress in 2014 they point first to their success in the May 22nd Euros. Coming top of the poll was a major breakthrough, helped by the unique closed regional list voting system. In the first past the post elections held on the same day it was a different story – dropping 6 points on national equivalent vote share on their 2013 performance and securing 3.8% of the seats. In…

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George needs to find a way of making UKIP voters less economically pessimistic

George needs to find a way of making UKIP voters less economically pessimistic

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An opportunity for the Tories in the 2015 budget? One of the great things about taking part in Edinburgh Festival of Politics was being able to meet up again with Professor John Curtice, who must be the county’s leading political scientist. Talking about UKIP voters he made a point that I’ve not really looked at before – their economic pessimism particularly when related to their own situations. Look at the chart above based on data from yesterday’s YouGov/ST poll. The…

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UKIP drops to its lowest point since February 2013 with Opinium

UKIP drops to its lowest point since February 2013 with Opinium

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For the past two years or so the fortnightly Opinium survey for the Observer has been one that has had some of the highest shares for UKIP – even, at times, into the 20s. This has happened even though Opinium doesn’t prompt for the purples and has them categorised as “some other party”. The firm’s high UKIP shares have been seen in both Westminster voting intention polls and in the Euros. Thus the final Opinium poll ahead of the May…

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There can be no getting round the fact that Tories are still being the most hurt by the UKIP surge

There can be no getting round the fact that Tories are still being the most hurt by the UKIP surge

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And a lot of 2010 non-voters seem to back Farage’s party The above chart is based on the aggregate data from Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling which had a total sample of 14,004. The first factor to stand out is that much more of UKIP’s current support in these key battlegrounds continues to come from ex-Tories than from ex-LAB voters. This means, of course, that the blues will benefit most should UKIP support fade. Secondly, given UKIP…

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Local By-Election Results: July 24th 2014

Local By-Election Results: July 24th 2014

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Clifton on Blackpool (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 501 (41%), UKIP 362 (30%), Conservatives 283 (23%), Liberal Democrats 33 (3%), Greens 25 (2%), TUSC 10 (1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 139 (11%) Turnout: 23% (Grateful thanks to Blackpool Council for their publication of the result and vote shares) Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun on Doncaster (Lab Defence) Result: UKIP 1,203 (41%), Labour 1,109 (38% unchanged), Conservatives 479 (16% +2%), Greens 160 (5%) UKIP GAIN from Labour with a…

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