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Nigel Farage hints at another Tory defection to UKIP

Nigel Farage hints at another Tory defection to UKIP

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Nigel Farage hints at another Tory defection to UKIP, who should you be betting on? http://t.co/0v2XsQ5Wga pic.twitter.com/Um7zgGX438 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 1, 2015 Today it is being reported Asked if he was in talks with Tory MPs about more defections, Mr Farage said: “The last time I spoke about this I said I would be surprised if there were not more. “There is one conversation we are still having. But do you know what – it is not very relevant…

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The biggest source of Farage’s support in Thanet South: non voters at the last election

The biggest source of Farage’s support in Thanet South: non voters at the last election

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There’s little doubt that one of the great successes that UKIP has had has been in engaging within the political process those who have never, or not recently, used their vote. The above breakdown is from the latest Survation South Thanet poll illustrates this well. Because of the way the firm presents its data we are able to quantify the non-voting element. A big question with non-2010 voting support is whether their backing can be relied on as much as…

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What’s dangerous for Farage about this UKIP defection is that it’ll raise questions again about his leadership style

What’s dangerous for Farage about this UKIP defection is that it’ll raise questions again about his leadership style

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The S Telegraph story on defection of UKIP MEP Amjad Bashir to CON http://t.co/LZEqNbimos pic.twitter.com/zk7B8nq5BC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2015 Website tells you how many #UKIP politicians have been suspended (32) and how long since most recent (14 mins) http://t.co/07pLgSluj7 — Pete Kennedy (@PeteKennedyGP) January 24, 2015 The MEP is one of quite a few who’ve moved on What makes this particularly striking is the timing so close to the general election, and the fact that Mr. Bashir…

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If the LDs experience is anything to go by then major party status for UKIP is bad news for the blues

If the LDs experience is anything to go by then major party status for UKIP is bad news for the blues

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Farage and Carswell pic.twitter.com/LN9BCE7d18 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 9, 2015 The chances of the purples fading must now be lower One of the features of general elections in recent times is that the Lib Dems always seem to get a boost during the campaign. Thus a 4-5% increase in their final share at the election compared with pre-formal campaign polls has almost been the norm. What has driven this is the extra attention they get from the broadcast media…

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More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a LAB government and fewer than a third want a CON one

More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a LAB government and fewer than a third want a CON one

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More polling that undermines notion that UKIP voters are "Tories on holiday" A quarter would prefer LAB government pic.twitter.com/bBvTsAd2iX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 3, 2015 Tonight’s poll Tonight's Opinium poll for Observer sees LAB lead down from 7% to 1% CON 32+3 LAB 33-3 LD 8+2 UKIP 17+1 GRN 4%-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 3, 2015 The tend in Opinium polls for the Observer pic.twitter.com/6hcx13yGVW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 3, 2015 Important to remember that GE15 not a national party popularity contest – but…

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UKIP are betting favourites to win in just five seats at GE2015

UKIP are betting favourites to win in just five seats at GE2015

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The bookies make UKIP the favourite to win in just 5 seats at GE2015. See list pic.twitter.com/lJ3MlN9KRw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 30, 2014 Given the way that the purples dominated the political narrative for a large part of 2014 it comes as something of a surprise to observe, as Antifrank does on his excellent blog, that UKIP is clear favourite in just five seats, all of them currently held by the Tories. The constituencies are listed in the table…

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The media narrative turns against the purples as the prospect of getting more MPs grows

The media narrative turns against the purples as the prospect of getting more MPs grows

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FT (£) http://t.co/z0pxB8dVw1 reporting that UKIP at war over Neil Hamilton's pursuit of a seat. pic.twitter.com/iGTleyplR3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 12, 2014 Whatever happens over Hamilton it will be wrong The former Conservative MP for Tatton who lost out to Martin Bell in 1997 has been much in the news of late as he has tried to be selected for a winnable seat for UKIP at GE15. The latest development, according to a report on the FT’s front page,…

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