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Category: UK Elections – others

The factors that drive much of the pro-LAB bias in general elections could work for the Tories in the May Euros

The factors that drive much of the pro-LAB bias in general elections could work for the Tories in the May Euros

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Don’t write off the Tories to win most votes We all know that the electoral system for Westminster seats seems to produce an outcome that is more favourable to LAB than the other parties. A big part of the reason for this is illustrated in the chart above. Labour has far fewer wasted votes. Thus looking at the first two columns – a much smaller proportion of LAB votes were “wasted” in seats where the party finished 3rd. A second…

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Remember the 2009 Euro elections when ICM was the pollster most out with UKIP

Remember the 2009 Euro elections when ICM was the pollster most out with UKIP

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After last night’s ICM poll which has UKIP down to 7% with the CON and LAB level-pegging it is inevitable that people will focus on the firm particularly its record with Farage’s party. There’s little doubt at the moment that the main differences between the pollsters is what they are recording for UKIP. If they find Farage’s party getting a high share then the Tories are doing worse. The chart above shows the UKIP shares in the final polls before…

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Final vote tally from last month’s locals shows UKIP in second place in seats contested

Final vote tally from last month’s locals shows UKIP in second place in seats contested

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Thanks to Andy JS who has done a brilliant job collecting and recording the data from each of the 2,208 seats that were fought on May 2nd. In addition to the numbers I’ve included as an option on the chart’s dropdown the shares from the ComRes local elections poll. Compared with the overall vote totals this overstated LAB and UKIP but understated CON and the LDs. These figures differ considerably from the notional national vote extrapolations put out by the…

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Comres: European Election poll

Comres: European Election poll

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Comres has conducted a poll for Open Europe on the European elections next year, the changes are from the European elections in 2009, The fieldwork was from the 22nd until the 24th of May, and 2003 adults were surveyed UKIP will be delighted with this poll, the Tories will be alarmed to be polling at 21% but delighted they’re only 2% behind Labour. The Lib Dems are polling higher than they did in 2009. The other salient parts (from the…

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Local By-Election Preview : May 16th 2013

Local By-Election Preview : May 16th 2013

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Harry Hayfield’s guide to the action Coker on Somerset (Deferred Election) Last Council Election (2013): Con 28, Lib Dem 18, Lab 3, UKIP 3, Ind 2 (Conservative majority of 2) Last Ward Election (2009): Lib Dem 1,454 (45%) Con 1,365 (43%) Green 249 (8%) Ind 131 (4%) Last Ward Election (2009 Notional): Lib Dem 1,687 (46%) Con 1,559 (43%) Green 271 (7%) Ind 151 (4%) Somerset has always been a Conservative / Liberal Democrat battleground going back as far as…

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The revolt of the Shires: Cameron’s last warning

The revolt of the Shires: Cameron’s last warning

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But should UKIP have done even better? Thursday’s elections represented a resounding raspberry to all three main parties.  Indeed, they reinforced that even talking of three main parties is an anachronism.  The Lib Dems did win more than twice as many councillors as UKIP but in all other respects they finished well behind.  In the South Shields by-election, UKIP scored another second place (their fourth in the last five mainland contests) and in the local elections, Nigel Farage’s party came…

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The results continue to roll in

The results continue to roll in

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Latest BBC vote share changes twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2013 @goodwinmj In divisions where they stood in 2009: UKIP up 14 points to 26%; Greens down 3 points at 7%; and BNP down 11 points to 4% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2013 @kevint1972 My £100 8/1 bet that Ukip will win 2+ seats at GE2015 looks good. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2013 These are the first County Council elections since 1993 being held…

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The 2013 locals so far: the John Curtice verdict

The 2013 locals so far: the John Curtice verdict

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Prof John Curtice: UKIP “greatest threat to established party system since WWW2” twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2013 Curtice on Ukip UKIP results looking “quite remarkable”, averaging 26% in council wards contested – #vote2013 analyst Prof Curtice bbc.in/16vV1M9 — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) May 3, 2013 The story so far #vote2013 so far: Labour win South Shields by-election; Tories retain 5 councils, lose 2; UKIP make gains. Go to bbc.co.uk/vote2013 — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) May 3, 2013 The LD…

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