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Category: UK Elections – others

What are the chances of upsets in the Scottish by-elections?

What are the chances of upsets in the Scottish by-elections?

Will the Iraq situation affect voting in Robin Cook’s old seat? After seeing themselves safely home by holding the Hartlepool by-election in the same week as the Labour conference a year ago party officials have adopted the same tactic for the Livingston Westminster by-election and the one at Glasgow Cathcart for the Scottish Parliament. During conference weeks parties get much more broadcast coverage than usual and Labour officials clearly felt that this was extra insurance just in case there was…

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Will Charles have calmed the doubters?

Will Charles have calmed the doubters?

How will tonight’s by-elections go? In the immediate aftermath of last year’s Lib Dem conference the party’s poll ratings soared to the dizzy heights of 29% – a point ahead of the Tories and just 3 points behind Labour. The share was never to get anywhere near that again and on May 5th 22.7% of the electorate cast their votes for Charles Kennedy’s party. The dashed expectations were surely one of the causes of the widespread view in Blackpool this…

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The Livingston by-election

The Livingston by-election

Labour should be strong enough in Cook’s old seat Recent reports have forecast that the by-election to fill the Livingston seat of the late Robin Cook will take place on 29th September. Betting is not available yet, but a few bookies normally run by-election markets once the date is formally set. The two main candidates (pictured to the right) will be Labour’s Jim Devine – previously Robin Cook’s election agent – and Angela Constance of the SNP, who fought the…

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London 2008: the runners

London 2008: the runners

Will it be Ken Livingstone’s turn again? I think the first comment I ever posted on this site concerned the London mayoral election last year. The winner was the hot favourite Ken Livingstone, but Mike Smithson was proved right in his prediction that Steve Norris would close the gap in the betting odds and polls as the campaign went on. Some bets on the next-but-one election – in 2012 – are already available under the umbrella of William Hill‘s Olympic-themed…

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Labour’s little looming local difficulties

Labour’s little looming local difficulties

Birmingham Council House Why Labour did too well in 2002 With the main electoral cycle over for the year, the next broad ballot box test for the parties will be May 2006’s English local elections in 176 urban and rural councils. Local elections are not a perfect test of the parties’ national standings – local issues of course play their role, and turnouts are typically low. But historically they have been an opportunity for a protest vote against the government…

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Olympic gaming

Olympic gaming

What will the British political landscape look like in July 2012? It’s easy for political gambling enthusiasts to get carried away and forget how tiny a market our hobby is compared to sports betting. For example, about £150,000 of betting on the Conservative leadership has gone through Betfair so far. That’s less than 5% of the trade on Sunday’s Chelsea–Arsenal game. However, William Hill seems to be aiming at some crossover marketing, with a selection of markets themed around the…

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Congratulations to Mark Senior

Congratulations to Mark Senior

Winner of our Cheadle prediction competition There were no prizes for the winner of our by-election competition except something which is pricelsss – the recognition of fellow users of the site. This is Mark Senior our winner and these were his answers. 1 – Winning party – Lib Dems 10 points 2 – Percentage turnout – 60 % against actual of 55% giving 3 points 3 – Lib Dem Share – 52 % against actual of 52.15% giving the maximum…

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When will voters stop hating the Tories?

When will voters stop hating the Tories?

Has the party moved on since Theresa May’s “nasty party” judgement? At the 2002 Tory party conference the then Chair, Theresa May, stunned delegates by telling them that..There’s a way to go before we can return to government. There’s a lot we need to do in this party of ours. Our base is too narrow and so, occasionally, are our sympathies, You know what some people call us: the nasty party” Nearly three years on from that speech the Cheadle…

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