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Category: UK Elections – others

Was Blair’s leaflet attack an own goal?

Was Blair’s leaflet attack an own goal?

Did the Cameron “flip-flop” attack bring Iraq into the campaign? Just 19 hours before polls opened in the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election Tony Blair produced a leaflet at Prime Minister’s Questions to reinforce his attacks on David Cameron for flip-flopping. It had been delivered to the seat’s most famous resident, Gordon Brown, and Blair quoted comments from it on the Tory policy on Iraq. This completely undermined David Cameron and there was general agreement that the Prime Minister’s performance…

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By-election betting to continue until the declaration

By-election betting to continue until the declaration

Labour 0.07/1 to hold the seat in Gordon’s back yard If there is going to be a shock in today’s by-election in Dunfermline and West Fife then the first indications should be seen on the betting exchange markets. For if there is just a sniff that something might be happening around the campaign HQs of the main parties then information will seep out and punters will try to cash in. All unmatched betting exchange bets are cancelled at 7am so…

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Could a good Dunfermline showing be Ming’s salvation?

Could a good Dunfermline showing be Ming’s salvation?

Populus poll boost for Lib Dems on eve of by-election With just a day to go before the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election the betting markets seem to think that the Lib Dems, in spite of all the recent troubles, look set to beat the SNP and hold onto their second place of last May. Using “advanced Lib Dem bar chart technology” and a guest appearance by Charles Kennedy the party seems to have had a good campaign. There was…

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Punters wary of so-called “polls”

Punters wary of so-called “polls”

What are we to make of these private surveys? If you are challenging to unseat the incumbent party in a by-election rule number one is to get over that you have the momentum and represent the only way of causing an upset. So with both the Lib Dem and the SNP seeking to win on Thursday in the fight in the Dunfermline and West Fife seat in the shadow of the Forth Bridges it’s no wonder that on the weekend…

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Dunfermline – could Cameron win the aftermath?

Dunfermline – could Cameron win the aftermath?

Will even a modest performance be spun as a “victory”? With hundreds of activists from the four main parties heading to Dunfermline this weekend ahead of Thursday’s Westminster by-election there can be no doubt, surely, that Labour is going to hang on. The party got 20,111 last May to the Lib Dems’ 8,549, the SNP’s 8,026 and just 4,376 votes for the Tories. This contest has got a “Labour with a substantially reduced majority on a low turnout” written all…

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Is Labour set to hang on in Gordon’s back yard?

Is Labour set to hang on in Gordon’s back yard?

Will fellow Fife-MP, Ming, get a Dunfermline headache? In what must be one of the quickest by-elections ever to be called the voters of Dunfermline and West Fife will got to the polls on February 9 – just 34 days after the death of their sitting Labour MP Rachel Squire. Clearly Labour has gone for a snap election with the aim of stopping any band-wagon effect from the Lib Dems or the SNP. At the General Election there was a…

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How will May 4th change the political landscape?

How will May 4th change the political landscape?

Would a local election disaster put added pressure on Blair? With leadership issues affecting all three main parties the local elections on May 4th could be crucial. Will the Cameron leadership come successfully through its first electoral test?; can Labour losses be restricted to acceptable levels? and will the Lib Dems continue to make advances in local government? In the four years since there were elections in most of the 6,000 or so council seats at stake the political climate…

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Will Walter’s eviction depress Labour’s by-election turnout?

Will Walter’s eviction depress Labour’s by-election turnout?

How will tonight’s elections go? As well as the PR disaster at the Labour conference itself the forceful eviction of 82 year-old Walter Wolfgang came on the eve of the two by-elections where the party is defending pretty safe majorities in Scotland. Forcing the escapee from Nazi Germany from the conference hall and the constant repetition of the incident over the past 36 hours on television cannot have helped the Labour effort to get its vote out today in Livingston…

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