But has YouGov got this one right? The former political journalist and one of the founders of YouGov, Peter Kellner, was reported to be quipping to colleagues yesterday: “One thing is certain: by Friday night – either Ken Livingstone or I will be out of a job”. For of the four firms that have surveyed Londoners only his firm, the controversial online pollster YouGov, has consistently reported significant margins for the Tory contender. The other firms – ICM, MRUK and…
Can Labour contain the damage with an ultra-short campaign? To all those outside London who have been saying that we have been over-doing the Boris-Ken contest can I say three words – Crewe and Nantwich. For after the London result on Friday the main UK domestic story will be the by election in the Cheshire seat. This site follows the key action and nothing else will happen in the coming months that will provide such a good test of opinion…
How winning promotion would cost me £1000 Until last week I have to admit that I have never followed the fortunes of teams in the Scottish second division too closely – if at all. But since the Crewe & Nantwich by election came into the frame all has changed – for if the Fife team manages to secure promotion then I might be down £1000. For last June in what now seems to be an earlier political era, one of…
The Welsh Local Elections Wales is seeing all-out local elections on May 1st. There are twenty two Welsh Unitary Authorities with 1,264 seats coming up for election. There are several curious features about Welsh local politics. Firstly, Labour doesn’t enjoy anything like the dominance in Wales that it enjoys at Parliamentary level. Currently it holds just eight of the authorities and does not control either Cardiff, or Swansea, Wales’ largest cities. Secondly, ratepayers, independents, and other non-party candidates remain very…
Will this be a by election nightmare for Cameron? It is always sad that when a sitting MP dies the first thoughts of the political classes are on the up-coming by election – and I am sure that such a hardy campaigner as Gwyneth Dunwoody was the same. She was 77 when she died yesterday and holds the distinction of being the longest ever serving female MP. As her Wikipedia biography records she was first elected to the commons for…
..and two-thirds want an early referendum on independence? A YouGov poll carried out during the week north of the border has found a big boost for the SNP and suggests a possible problem for Labour in retaining seats in the country at the next general election. Like most Scottish polls it is in three parts:- Westminster General Election with changes on May 2005. SNP 31% (+13): Lab 35% (-5): Con: 17% (+1): Lib: 12% (-11): Oth: 4% Scottish Parliament constituency…
Which is worse – electoral fraud or low turnouts? Communities minister, Hazel Blears, was faced with big dilemma when she appeared on BBC2’s Daily Politics this morning. How could the government go on resisting the individual voter registration in view of this week’s report from the Electoral Commission saying that “safeguards introduced to combat electoral fraud “are easily bypassed” because of weaknesses in the system? The head of standards, Sir Christopher Kelly, said that the current arrangement of one registration…
Why has the British Polling Council decided to investigate? A week before Christmas, on December 18th, the above press release was issued by the GLA about a poll showing that 38% of Londoners “strongly supported” plans to increase the congestion charge to the most polluting cars with 21% opposing the scheme. In the normal course of events within two days the pollster, Ipsos-MORI, would have published full data from the survey on its website as part of the transparency arrangements…