YouGov Do oldies dominate when there’s a very low-turnout? I have to admit to being completely perplexed by the polling data that we are getting about next Thursday Euro election. What worries me is the turnout level which, if it is very low, will play havoc with all the polling projections. Pollsters have a big enough challenge in a general election when 60% actually vote – how are they going to perform if the percentage is near to the 24%…
What chances of Farage’s party over-hauling Labour? There’s a buzz around the UKIP campaign HQ at the moment following a private ComRes poll which seems to suggest that they could do very well – perhaps, even, over-taking Labour for second place. I haven’t seen any figures but my understanding is that amongst those who are certain or near-certain to vote then UKIP’s share was in the 18 – 19% region. This was still some way behind the Labour share but…
Am I going to win my William Hill bet? Nearly a month ago William Hill put up a market for a short while on the June 4th country councils elections that in several places are happening at the same time as the Euro elections. The bet was simple: 2/1 that Labour would lose control of all of its remaining county – the four featured above. So it’s been very interesting following the canvassing reports of Nick Palmer – MP for…
Guardian.co.uk Has he created another 24 hours not talking about Europe? I am coming to the view that when it comes to tapping into the public mood and dominating the news agenda David Cameron is even smarter than the past-master, the leader that Labour foolishly sacked, Tony Blair. Just consider what’s happening at the moment. There’s just one week and one day left in the campaign for five yearly election of members of the European Parliament and yet another news…
Is this the nearest thing to a certainty that you’ll get? In political betting I am always wary of the term certainty but sometimes an opportunity arises when I’m convinced that what I’m betting on will come about. The last time I had this feeling was nearly a year ago when Ladbrokes had a market up on whether Labour would lose its deposit in the Henley by election. To me it seemed a certainty that Labour would get less than…
CON 30 (+4) LAB 24(+1) LD 18 (+3) UKIP 10(-6) GRN 9(3) SNP/PC 4(+2) BNP 1(-4) OTH 3(-3) Could turnout distort the pollsters’ projections? There’s a new Guardian ICM poll on the June 4th Euro elections out this afternoon which suggests that in spite of everything the main parities are all set for an increase of ten points between them compared with what happened in the last elections five years ago. This goes very much against other EU election polling…
CON 39 (-2) LAB 23(+1) LD 19 (nc) But are the BNP gaining in the Euros? There’s a new YouGov poll in the printed edition Daily Telegraph this morning which is not yet on their online pages which is why I missed it overnight. The figures will provide a welcome relief for Labour and might cause a touch of concern for the Tories who are below 40% for the first time since 2007 in a survey from the pollster. The…
Could Labour, be beaten by the UKIP caravan? In the 2004 Euro election campaign in the UK and so far during the 2009 campaign all the big shares for UKIP have come from the online pollster, YouGov or BPIX for which it carries out the fieldwork. Five years ago the firm was first to pick up the ground-swell of opinion in favour of the anti-EU party although at the end of the pollster overstated their national share. So this morning’s…